In a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on Monday, BMI revealed its latest Brent oil price forecasts out to 2029.
According to the report, BMI sees the commodity averaging $68 per barrel in 2025, $71 per barrel in 2026, and $70 per barrel across 2027, 2028, and 2029.
A Bloomberg consensus included in the report projected that Brent will average $73 per barrel this year, $71 per barrel next year, $75 per barrel in 2026, $74 per barrel in 2028, and $69 per barrel in 2029. BMI highlighted in the report that it is a contributor to the Bloomberg consensus.
“Due to the significant changes in U.S. trade policy, we are making a mid-month update to our oil price forecast,” BMI analysts stated in the report.
“We have cut the annual average for Brent crude from $76 per barrel to $68 per barrel for 2025. For 2026, we are revising down from $75 per barrel to $71 per barrel, with an expected supply overhang weighing on the market’s recovery,” they added.
“These changes have been made in response to the sharp rise in the U.S. effective tariff rate and the heightened risks to the global economy. Oil consumption is relatively inelastic, but slowing economic activity will erode demand at the margins, curbing growth,” they continued.
“More importantly, pervasive trade uncertainties and downside pressures on major economies, including the U.S., Mainland China, and the EU, will negatively impact on Brent via shifts in sentiment and rising risk aversion,” they went on to state.
“This will continue to depress prices over the coming months, before markets recover in the backend of the year,” the analysts noted.
A BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on April 11 showed that BMI expected the front month Brent crude price to average $76 per barrel in 2025 and $75 per barrel in 2026. A BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on March 3 showed that BMI expected the Brent price to average $76 per barrel this year, $75 per barrel next year, and $75 per barrel across 2027, 2028, and 2029.
A research note sent to Rigzone by Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at J.P. Morgan, on April 14 showed that J.P. Morgan expects the average Brent price to come in at $66 per barrel in 2025 and $57 per barrel in 2026. J.P. Morgan’s previous forecast projected that the Brent price would come in at $73 per barrel this year and $61 per barrel next year, the research note showed.
“Our approach has been to avoid revising our price forecasts unless there is clear evidence that the fundamentals underpinning our original view have changed,” J.P. Morgan analysts, including Kaneva, stated in the research note.
“Throughout 2024, we maintained our forecasts without any adjustments. This time, the heightened trade policy uncertainty that should start to weigh on activity growth starting in April or May, is prompting us to reassess our position,” they added.
“For the full year, we now expect global oil demand to increase by 0.8 million barrels per day, with growth averaging only 0.3 million barrels per day in the third quarter,” they continued.
“The higher production volumes from the OPEC+ alliance indicate a shift in the reaction function, which, when combined with weaker demand, will push balances into a large surplus and drive Brent down below $60 towards year end,” the J.P. Morgan analysts warned.
Rigzone has contacted the White House, the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, and the European Commission Chief Spokesperson for comment on BMI’s report. Rigzone has also contacted the White House and OPEC for comment on the J.P. Morgan note. At the time of writing, none of the above have responded to Rigzone.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its Brent spot price forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on April 10.
According to its April STEO, the EIA now sees the Brent spot price averaging $67.87 per barrel in 2025 and $61.48 per barrel in 2026. In its previous STEO, which was released in March, the EIA projected that the Brent spot price would average $74.22 per barrel this year and $68.47 per barrel next year.
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