Russia is preparing to sharply increase crude oil exports this month after Ukrainian drone strikes disabled two major refineries, leaving excess unprocessed crude with no domestic outlet and prompting a shift toward western port shipments.
According to Reuters, crude shipments from Russia’s western ports could increase to 2 million barrels per day in August, about 200,000 bpd more than previously planned. Spot traders have begun locking in Aframax tankers to handle the sudden increase, as onshore refining options collapse and terminal inventories build.
Ukrainian drone strikes overnight targeting Russian oil infrastructure have disabled two major Rosneft-operated refineries. Kommersant reported that the Novokuibyshevsk refinery has completely halted primary processing after damage to its CDU-11 unit. At Ryazan, only one crude distillation unit remains online, slashing output by more than half and affecting both gasoline and diesel production.
This shortfall has driven domestic fuel prices to historic levels. The Kyiv Independent reports that Ai-95 gasoline on the St. Petersburg exchange reached RUB 77,000 per ton on Tuesday, marking the highest print since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The fuel spike is being closely monitored by the Kremlin as it coincides with peak summer demand, raising concerns about potential rationing or emergency stockpile use in affected regions.
According to traders cited by Reuters, Russia may need up to ten additional Aframax tankers to handle the planned increase in crude exports from its western ports in August. The rise of up to 200,000 barrels per day above prior guidance reflects the diversion of crude volumes that can no longer be processed domestically due to refinery damage. Spot market activity has reportedly picked up, with charterers seeking mid-August loading windows to lift Urals crude that would have otherwise been sent to Rosneft’s Ryazan and Novokuibyshevsk refineries.
Traders expect Russia will offload as much Urals crude as possible while prices remain favorable and inventories swell. Market participants are also watching for any official response from Rosneft or the Russian Energy Ministry regarding repair timelines.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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