In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released recently, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price forecasts for this year and next year.
According to its December STEO, the EIA now sees the WTI spot price averaging $76.51 per barrel in 2024 and $69.12 per barrel in 2025. The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in November, projected that the WTI spot price would average $77 per barrel in 2024 and $71.60 per barrel in 2025.
In its latest STEO, the EIA forecast that the WTI spot price will average $70.37 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $69.67 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $69.83 per barrel in the second quarter, $69.50 per barrel in the third quarter, and $67.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
The EIA’s November STEO saw the WTI spot price coming in at $72.32 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2024, $73.67 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $73.17 per barrel in the second quarter, $71.17 per barrel in the third quarter, and $68.52 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Both STEOs put the 2023 WTI spot price average at $77.58 per barrel and the third quarter 2024 WTI spot price average at $76.43 per barrel.
A research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team last Friday showed that J.P. Morgan expects the WTI Crude price to average $76 per barrel in 2024, $69 per barrel in 2025, and $57 per barrel in 2026.
J.P. Morgan sees the WTI Crude price averaging $70 per barrel across the fourth quarter of 2024 and first quarter of 2025, $73 per barrel in the second quarter of 2025, $69 per barrel in the third quarter, and $65 per barrel in the fourth quarter, the report showed. The company expects the commodity to come in at $60 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $59 per barrel in the second quarter, $55 per barrel in the third quarter, and $53 per barrel in the fourth quarter, according to the report.
A BMI report sent to Rigzone on the same day by the Fitch Group showed that BMI expects the front month WTI Crude price to average $77 per barrel in 2024 and $73 per barrel in 2025.
Another report sent to Rigzone late Tuesday by Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell showed that the bank expects the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price to average $89 per barrel in 2025, $92 per barrel in 2026, and $103 per barrel in 2027.
That report revealed that Standard Chartered Bank sees the commodity averaging $86 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $89 per barrel in the second quarter, $92 per barrel in the third quarter, $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $88 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026.
In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) report sent to Rigzone on Thursday, Ole R. Hvalbye, a commodities analyst at the company, warned that WTI positioning “remains in historically bearish territory”.
“Hedge funds and other institutional investors began rebuilding their positions in Brent last week amid OPEC+ negotiations,” Hvalbye said in that report.
“Fund managers added 26 million barrels to their Brent contracts, bringing their net long positions to 157 million barrels – the highest since July. This uptick signals a cautiously optimistic outlook, driven by OPEC+ efforts to manage supply effectively,” he added.
“However, while Brent’s positioning improved to the 35th percentile for weeks since 2010, the WTI positioning remains in historically bearish territory, reflecting broader market skepticism,” he continued.
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