Total U.S. energy consumption will increase in 2025 and 2026.
That’s what the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on September 9.
According to the EIA’s September STEO, the organization expects U.S. energy demand to come in at 95.50 quadrillion British thermal units (qBtu) in 2025 and 95.96 qBtu in 2026. The EIA’s September STEO highlighted that total U.S. energy consumption was 94.22 qBtu in 2024.
The EIA forecast in its latest STEO that total U.S. energy consumption will come in at 23.79 qBtu in the third quarter of 2025, 24.00 qBtu in the fourth quarter, 24.82 qBtu in the first quarter of next year, 22.48 qBtu in the second quarter, 24.32 qBtu in the third quarter, and 24.33 qBtu in the fourth quarter. It highlighted that this demand was 25.43 qBtu in the first quarter and 22.28 qBtu in the second quarter.
The EIA’s latest STEO projected that U.S. liquid fuels demand will average 20.49 million barrels per day in 2025 and 20.61 million barrels per day in 2026. U.S. natural gas consumption is expected to average 91.5 billion cubic feet per day this year and 91.4 billion cubic per day next year, the EIA’s September STEO showed. U.S. renewables consumption was projected in the EIA’s latest STEO to come in at 8.78 qBtu in 2025 and 9.38 qBtu in 2026.
In its previous STEO, which was released in August, the EIA forecast that U.S. energy demand would come in at 95.50 qBtu in 2025 and 95.52 qBtu in 2026.
U.S. liquid fuels demand was projected to average 20.44 million barrels per day in 2025 and 20.47 million barrels per day in 2026 in the EIA’s August STEO. That STEO forecast that U.S. natural gas consumption would average 91.4 billion cubic feet per day this year and 91.2 billion cubic per day next year and that U.S. renewables consumption would come in at 8.82 qBtu in 2025 and 9.40 qBtu in 2026.
Back in its July STEO, the EIA projected that U.S. energy demand would come in at 95.32 qBtu in 2025 and 95.25 qBtu in 2026.
In that STEO, U.S. liquid fuels demand was projected to average 20.39 million barrels per day in 2025 and 20.42 million barrels per day in 2026, U.S. natural gas consumption was expected to average 91.4 billion cubic feet per day this year and 91.1 billion cubic per day next year, and U.S. renewables consumption was expected to come in at 8.88 qBtu in 2025 and 9.44 qBtu in 2026.
In its June STEO, the EIA forecast that U.S. energy demand would come in at 95.39 qBtu in 2025 and 95.29 qBtu in 2026.
In that STEO, the EIA saw U.S. liquid fuels demand averaging 20.39 million barrels per day in 2025 and 20.41 million barrels per day in 2026, U.S. natural gas consumption averaging 91.3 billion cubic feet per day this year and 91.1 billion cubic per day next year, and U.S. renewables consumption coming in at 8.94 qBtu in 2025 and 9.51 qBtu in 2026.
The EIA’s August, July, and June STEOs also highlighted that total U.S. energy consumption was 94.22 qBtu in 2024. In its August STEO, the EIA showed that U.S. energy demand came in at 25.42 qBtu in the first quarter of this year and 22.28 qBtu in the second quarter. The EIA’s July STEO showed that U.S. energy consumption was 25.42 qBtu in the first quarter of 2025 and 22.17 qBtu in the second quarter. In its June STEO, the EIA showed that U.S. energy demand was 25.38 qBtu in the first quarter and projected that this consumption would come in at 22.06 qBtu in the second quarter.
The EIA noted in its STEOs that renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy. The EIA added in the STEOs that it does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy.
In a note related to its total energy consumption figures, the EIA said in its STEOs that the conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIA’s Monthly Energy Review (MER).
The EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment, the EIA states on its website.
In its STEOs, the EIA describes itself as the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy and notes that, “by law”, its “data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. Government”.
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