UK petroleum and other liquid fuels production will average 0.74 million barrels per day in 2024 and 0.75 million barrels per day in 2025.
That’s according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month. The EIA’s December STEO put 2023 UK petroleum and other liquid fuels production at 0.80 million barrels per day in 2023.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO projected that UK petroleum and other liquid fuels output will average 0.75 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2024, 0.78 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025, 0.77 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 0.69 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 0.77 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
UK petroleum and other liquid fuels production came in at 0.77 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, 0.74 million barrels per day in the second quarter, and 0.69 million barrels per day in the third quarter, according to the EIA’s December STEO.
The EIA’s petroleum and other liquid fuels production figures include crude oil, lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, other liquids, refinery processing gain, and other unaccounted-for liquids, the December STEO highlighted.
Rigzone asked industry body Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) and UK regulator the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) for comment on the EIA’s UK petroleum and other liquid fuels production forecasts for 2024 and 2025.
OEUK has not yet responded to Rigzone’s request with a comment at the time of writing. The NSTA declined to comment on those forecasts. The NSTA did, however, direct Rigzone to the NSTA’s latest production projections, which were made in October.
According to those projections, the NSTA expects UK oil production to come in at 0.63 million barrels per day in 2024, 0.58 million barrels per day in 2025, 0.54 million barrels per day in 2026, 0.50 million barrels per day in 2027, 0.46 million barrels per day in 2026, and 0.43 million barrels per day in 2029.
UK crude oil production is forecast to come in at 0.57 million barrels per day in 2024, 0.53 million barrels per day in 2025, 0.49 million barrels per day in 2026, 0.45 million barrels per day in 2027, 0.42 million barrels per day in 2028, and 0.39 million barrels per day in 2029, the projections showed.
UK oil production averaged 0.70 million barrels per day in 2023 and the country’s crude oil production averaged 0.63 million barrels per day last year, the NSTA projection publication highlighted.
According to the Energy Institute’s (EI) latest statistical review of world energy, which was released earlier this year, UK oil production was 0.715 million barrels per day in 2023. That figure marked an 11.6 percent year on year decrease and 0.7 percent of global oil production in 2023, the review outlined.
From 2013 to 2023, UK oil production has dropped by an average of 1.9 percent every year, the review pointed out.
Oil production figures in the EI review include crude oil, shale oil, oil sands, condensates (lease condensate or gas condensates that require further refining), and NGLs (natural gas liquids – ethane, LPG, and naphtha separated from the production of natural gas), the review highlighted.
The figures exclude liquid fuels from other sources such as biofuels and synthetic derivatives of coal and natural gas, the review revealed. They also exclude liquid fuel adjustment factors, such as refinery processing gain, and oil shales/kerogen extracted in solid form, the review pointed out.
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