In a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on Monday, analysts at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, projected that global oil demand “will post steady growth” in 2026 “but remain below historic trends”.
“We forecast 2026 total fuel consumption to expand by 1.0 percent, a slight decrease from the 1.1 percent registered for 2025,” the BMI analysts noted in the report, which identified “key” oil and gas themes for next year.
“The growth for 2026 will still see incremental demand of one million barrels per day for the year,” the analysts added.
In the report, the BMI analysts said the 2026 global oil demand forecast “marks the continuation of waning oil consumption growth seen in the post-Covid era with most growth attributed to Mainland China and emerging markets (EMs)”.
“The U.S. will post weaker growth in 2026 while other developed markets will see further contraction in fuel consumption,” they added.
The analysts revealed in the report that global fuel consumption growth is forecast to continue shrinking throughout their 10-year forecast period, “despite the strength of gains in EMs”.
“India will take over as the largest market for growth, adding 237,000 barrels per day of additional demand, followed by China with 165,000 barrels per day of growth in 2026,” they said.
The BMI analysts went on to state in the report that the forecast for steady growth in fuel demand is supported by their global economic outlook, which they said “points to a year of steady gains in 2026, with forecast global GDP growth of 2.6 percent, unchanged from 2025”.
“Supportive monetary and fiscal policies will bolster economic activity, unlocking consumer and business confidence. The stabilization of growth as trade frictions ease, following on from the volatility and uncertainty seen in 2025, will buttress demand for oil,” they added.
“EMs will post 3.9 percent real GDP growth, underpinning our view for these markets to be the main driver of global fuel consumption growth in 2026,” they continued.
Also in the report, the BMI analysts projected that, next year, energy prices “continue to see downside pressures as soft demand and resilient supplies outweigh geopolitical risk premia”.
“Our forecast for oversupply in the energy market will see prices pressured lower in the coming year,” the BMI analysts stated in the report.
“We are maintaining our forecast for Brent to average $67 per barrel despite it being above consensus due to solid macro-economic backdrop, steady demand outlook, and an expected flexibility from price sensitive producers,” they added.
In a separate BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on November 20, BMI projected that the front month Brent crude price will average $68.50 per barrel in 2025 and $67 per barrel in 2026. This report showed that the front month Brent crude price averaged $80.70 per barrel in 2024.
In a report sent to Rigzone by the Morningstar team last week, Morningstar analysts said they believe before plateauing in the early 2030s”.
The Morningstar analysts stated in that report that, as a result of their demand outlook, they’ve recently upgraded their midcycle oil price to $65 per barrel from $60.
“Over 2025 to 2034, we expect Brent oil prices to average $65 per barrel in inflation-adjusted terms,” the analysts said in the report.
“This is close to the current Brent price at $63 as of November 2025, and a bit below the 2015-24 average real Brent price of $76,” they added.
In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO) at the time of writing, which was released on November 12, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that world petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption will average 104.14 million barrels per day in 2025 and 105.20 million barrels per day in 2026. That STEO showed that this demand stood at 103.09 million barrels per day in 2024.
The EIA projected in its latest STEO that the Brent spot average price will come in at $68.76 per barrel in 2025 and $54.92 per barrel in 2026.
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