U.S. natural gas futures have reversed their recent decline, climbing more than 3% on Thursday to trade above $4 per MMBtu thanks to near-record flows of natural gas to LNG export plants. Gas deliveries to the eight major U.S. LNG facilities have averaged 18.6 Bcf/d so far this month, above November’s average at 18.2 Bcf/d. Meanwhile, one of its three liquefaction trains at Freeport LNG’s export terminal in Texas has returned to service, with the terminal increasing its volumes.
However, the rebound might be short-lived, with predictions of above-average temperatures across much of the United States ahead of the Christmas holiday, portending weaker heating demand. Ample inventories coupled with record-high production are also likely to pressure prices, with LSEG estimating December gas output at around 109.7 Bcf/d so far in the month, in-line with record levels seen in November.
The U.S. is expected to retain its position as the world’s largest natural gas producer in the coming year, with dry gas production projected to average around 107.4 to 109 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). The most significant growth driver is the expansion of LNG export capacity, with new facilities like Plaquemines LNG and Golden Pass LNG ramping up operations.
Total export capacity is set to reach roughly 16.3 Bcf/d by 2026, reinforcing the U.S. as a major “swing exporter” in the global market. This surge in global supply may put downward pressure on international LNG prices, which could impact the profitability of U.S. exporters if the spread between domestic and international prices shrinks.
Natural gas prices are anticipated to be firmer than in 2025, with robust production and high storage levels expected to prevent runaway price increases. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts the Henry Hub spot price to average around $4.00 to $4.01 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) for the year 2026.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
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