Sanctions from the European Union and the United States pressured Russian crude oil export revenues to a 20% decline on the year in 2025, the Financial Times reported, citing Agus pricing data.
The data suggests that the discount between Russian crude and international benchmarks widened to $24 per barrel last year, from an average of $15 per barrel for both 2023 and 2024. The discount, coupled with generally weaker oil prices last year, reduced the state budget income from crude oil exports. A stronger ruble has aggravated the effect of lower international prices and wider discounts, the FT wrote, citing analysts.
Russia shipped an average of 3.18 million barrels per day of crude in the four weeks to January 25, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That volume was little changed from the prior week but down by about 680,000 bpd from the pre-Christmas peak and the lowest level since August. The bigger issue right now is not how much Russia is shipping, but where those barrels are ending up, as Indian refiners seek to comply with the latest U.S. sanctions, targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s biggest exporters.
Indian refiners stopped buying cargos from the two companies and turned to non-sanctioned Russian supply but also alternative cargoes from the Middle East, the Americas, and, to a lesser extent, West Africa, arbitrage permitting.
“Discharges of Russian crude are set to fall further in January, extending a post-November unwind and signaling a strategic pivot among major refiners,” Ivan Mathews, Head of APAC Analysis at Vortexa, said earlier this month. The latest data suggests Indian oil importers are on track for a record month, but most of that would come from non-Russian sources. Analysts have forecast the daily average at 5.2 million barrels of crude oil and condensates.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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