The global LNG market is expanding by 3% every year, growing at a faster pace than the overall natural gas market, Wael Sawan, chief executive officer of the world’s top LNG trader, Shell, said at an LNG conference in Doha, Qatar.
Both supply and demand of LNG have surged in recent years, and a new supply wave is coming by the end of this decade.
The supply surge is set to begin as soon as this year, analysts and forecasters say.
New LNG export projects coming online and ramp-ups of recently commissioned facilities are expected to drive a 10% jump in global LNG supply this year, as the market shifts from tightness to abundance.
The supply growth, mostly from the top two exporters, the United States and Qatar, is set to depress Asian spot LNG prices and Europe’s benchmark gas prices at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF).
While lower prices would weigh on the profit margins of the U.S. exporters, they would incentivize additional demand, especially in Asia, where buyers have become more price sensitive to LNG imports, according to the analysts.
The Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi Stage 3 projects will continue ramping up to full operations, while Golden Pass LNG is expected to begin operations by mid-2026, the Energy Information Administration said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) last month.
Supply is set to grow beyond 2026, too, with the completion of Qatar’s mega expansion LNG projects by 2028.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global supply growth to accelerate in 2026 to more than 7%, its fastest pace since 2019.
The supply wave is set to reduce price pressures and incentivize additional demand in price-sensitive consumers, especially in the fast-growing energy markets in Asia, according to the agency.
This year’s jump in supply, mostly from North America, is expected to reduce market pressures at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, the IEA said.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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