Lower Oil Prices Drag ConocoPhillips Q4 Profit Below Estimates

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) booked lower-than-expected earnings for the fourth quarter as higher production was unable to offset the decline in oil prices.

ConocoPhillips reported on Thursday fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.3 billion, or $1.02 per share. That was nearly halved compared with adjusted earnings of $2.4 billion, or $1.98 per share, for the fourth quarter of 2024.

The earnings for October-December 2025 were also lower than the $1.07 analyst consensus estimate in The Wall Street Journal. 

ConocoPhillips attributed the decline to the impact of lower prices, which were only partially offset by higher volumes.

During the fourth quarter, the company’s total average realized price was $42.46 per barrel of oil equivalent, 19% lower than the $52.37 per boe realized in the fourth quarter of 2024.

For the full-year 2025, the average realized price was $47.01 per boe, down by 14% from $54.83 per boe realized in 2024.

Oil and gas production averaged 2.375 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. After adjusting for impacts from closed acquisitions and dispositions, production increased by 57,000 boed, or by 2.5%, from 2024.

During the year, ConocoPhillips completed the integration of Marathon Oil and doubled synergy capture to more than $1 billion on a run-rate basis. 

Last year, ConocoPhillips distributed $9.0 billion, or 45% of cash flow from operations, to shareholders, including $5.0 billion through share repurchases and $4.0 billion through the ordinary dividend.

Despite the weaker oil prices and results, the company reiterated its guidance for 2026 capital expenditures of about $12 billion and adjusted operating costs of $10.2 billion.

The 2026 production guidance is 2.33-2.36 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

“Looking ahead, we’re focused on driving a $1 billion reduction in our capital and costs in 2026, while returning 45% of our CFO to shareholders,” Chairman and CEO Ryan Lance said.

“We are well positioned to deliver an expected $7 billion in incremental free cash flow by 2029, including $1 billion each year from 2026 through 2028.”

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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