Focus at the London International Energy Week (IEW) last week was the balancing of geopolitics versus assessed surplus of oil globally in 2026.
That’s what Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) Chief Commodities Analyst Bjarne Schieldrop noted in a SEB report sent to Rigzone on Monday morning, adding that one delegate at the event stated that “if OPEC doesn’t cut, we’ll have $45 per barrel in June”.
“That may be true,” Schieldrop said in the report.
“But OPEC+ is meeting every month, taking a measure of the state of the global oil market and then decides what to do on the back of that. The group has been very explicit that they may cut, increase, or keep production steady depending on their findings,” he added.
“We believe they will and thus we do not buy into $45 per barrel by June because, if need-be, they will trim production as they say they will,” he continued, pointing out that OPEC+ is next scheduled to meet on March 1 “to discuss production for April”.
Schieldrop highlighted in the report that, in its February oil market report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) “restated its view that the world will only need 25.7 million barrels per day of crude from OPEC in 2026 versus a recent production by the group of 28.8 million barrels per day”.
“I.e. that to keep the market balanced the group will need to cut production by some three million barrels per day,” he said.
“Though strategic stock building around the world needs to be deducted from that. And the appetite for such stock building could be solid given elevated geopolitical risks. Thus what will flow to commercial stocks in the end remains to be seen,” he stated.
Schieldrop went on to note in the report that increased Iranian tension could drive Brent to $80 per barrel and said fading tension would drop it back to $60 per barrel.
IEW, which was hosted by the Energy Institute, took place from February 10-12 at the QEII Center in London, UK. The event’s website describes IEW as the UK’s “flagship energy event” and as “more than just a conference”.
“It’s a convening force, a networking hub and a strategic tool in the Energy Institute’s mission to create a better energy future,” the site states.
The IEW website notes that International Energy Week 2026 “is the first major global energy event following COP30, where the world’s energy leaders gather to turn climate commitments into action”.
“Backed by the Energy Institute and its 20,000 strong membership, International Energy Week offers a unique platform to tackle the most urgent challenges in energy: from grid resilience and supply chain risk, to financing the transition and scaling innovation,” it adds.
Speakers at this year’s IEW event included Shell CEO Wael Sawan, Vitol CEO Russell Hardy, and CNOOC Group Deputy Chief Economist Wang Zhen, the IEW site highlights.
In a report sent to Rigzone by the Standard Chartered team last week, Emily Ashford, Energy Research Head at Standard Chartered Bank, highlighted that traders and analysts were meeting in London that week for IEW, which the energy head said “is always a useful gauge of market sentiment”.
“Last year the focus was around the new second Trump administration, and whether it would be inherently bullish or bearish for oil prices,” Ashford noted.
“This was particularly so given the signing of a National Security Presidential Memorandum in early February 2025 that restored maximum pressure on Iran, with a focus on reducing its crude exports,” Ashford said.
“One year later, and the complex U.S.-Iran relationship and potential impact on Iranian barrels in the market remains front and center,” Ashford continued.
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