In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team late Monday, Macquarie strategists revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up 4.8 million barrels for the week ending January 24.
“This compares to our early look for the week which anticipated a 2.7 million barrel build, and a 1.0 million barrel draw realized for the week ending January 17,” the strategists said in the report.
“On the product side of the ledger, in aggregate, our expectations are modestly looser than our early view,” they added.
In the report, the Macquarie strategists noted that, “for this week’s crude balance, from refineries”, they “model crude runs minimally lower following a weak print last week”.
“Among net imports, we model a large increase, with exports sharply lower (-0.9 million barrels per day) and imports down modestly (-0.2 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” the strategists added.
Timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance, while winter weather impacts could create distortions across crude and product balances, the Macquarie strategists stated in the report.
“In any event, from implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a slight increase (+0.1 million barrels per day) following a soft nominal print last week,” they continued.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate another small increase in SPR inventory (+0.2 million barrels) on the week,” they went on to state.
The strategists also noted in the report that, “among products”, they “look for builds in gasoline (+3.6 million barrels) and jet (+0.5 million barrels), with a draw in distillate (-1.4 million barrels)”.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~13.7 million barrels per day for the week ending January 24,” they added.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on Friday, Macquarie strategists outlined that they “anticipate a moderate U.S. crude build” in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) upcoming weekly petroleum status report.
That report is scheduled to be released on January 29 and will include data for the week ending January 24. The most recent weekly petroleum status report from the EIA, at the time of writing, was released on January 23 and included data for the week ending January 17.
“Looking ahead to next week’s release, we anticipate a moderate U.S. crude build (+2.7 million barrels), with runs up slightly (+0.1 million barrels per day) despite winter weather impacts, nominal implied supply down minimally amidst potential large freeze impacts, net imports substantially higher (+0.8 million barrels per day), and a larger increase in SPR inventory (+0.9 million barrels) on the week,” the strategists said in that report.
“We note potential for volatility in these figures given the incomplete nature of this week’s data and potential storm impacts across crude and products balances,” they added.
“Among products, our preliminary expectations point to another build in gasoline (+3.4 million barrels) and jet (+0.8 million barrels), with distillate stocks meaningfully lower (-2.2 million barrels),” they continued.
In the report, the Macquarie strategists highlighted that, last week, the EIA “reported draws in commercial crude (-1.0 million barrels) and at Cushing (-0.1 million barrels), with mixed product stats (gasoline +2.3 million barrels, distillate -3.1 million barrels, jet +0.1 million barrels)”.
“Bucking the recent trend, the crude balance realized much looser than our expectations, while in aggregate, product balances were tighter. In both cases, extremely weak refining runs help bridge the gap,” the strategists added in the report.
“After a period of sustained outperformance, runs realized well below our expectation this week (-0.5 million barrels per day). In addition, net imports were much higher than expected on a nominal basis (+1.2 million barrels per day),” they continued.
“Implied domestic supply (prod.+adj. +trans.) was a nominally soft 13.2 million barrels per day (we modeled ~13.9 million barrels per day); this figure appears much stronger when adjusted for third-party estimated waterborne flows,” they went on to state.
The Macquarie strategists also noted in the report that, “among products, implied demand was slightly below” their “expectation … with gasoline+distillate+jet at 13.8 million barrels per day (vs. ~13.9 million barrels per day est.), with the trailing four week average at 13.4 million barrels per day vs. 12.9 million barrels per day for the same four weeks last year”.
“In contrast, total disappearance (impl. demand + exports) for those three products was slightly above our expectation at 16.3 million barrels per day (vs. ~16.2 million barrels per day est.), with the trailing four week average at 15.9 million barrels per day vs. 15.2 million barrels per day for the same four weeks last year,” they added.
In its January 23 weekly petroleum status report, the EIA highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, decreased by 1.0 million barrels from the week ending January 10 to the week ending January 17.
Crude oil stocks, excluding the SPR, stood at 411.7 million barrels on January 17, 412.7 million barrels on January 10, and 420.7 million barrels on January 19, 2024, the report showed. Crude oil in the SPR came in at 394.6 million barrels on January 17, 394.3 million barrels on January 10, and 356.5 million barrels on January 19, 2024, the report highlighted.
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.621 billion barrels on January 17, the report revealed. This figure was down 3.9 million barrels week on week and up 24.2 million barrels year on year, the report outlined.
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