Oil tankers are beginning to test the waters at the Strait of Hormuz.
At least eight crude carriers started advancing toward the chokepoint within hours of Iran declaring the Strait open to shipping under a ceasefire framework. Five vessels that had been idling north of Dubai moved first, followed by three more positioned roughly 70 miles west, according to vessel tracking data cited by Bloomberg.
It’s the first real sign of life in a corridor that has effectively been frozen since late February, when conflict in the region choked off flows through the world’s most critical oil transit route. Roughly a fifth of global oil and gas typically moves through Hormuz. Prices have reflected the stoppage in recent weeks.
Brent crude prices fell over 10% earlier on Friday after Iran announced the Strait would be open for business. Despite the market’s optimism, this isn’t a full reopening.
Hundreds of tankers remain stranded across the Persian Gulf, but several ship owners told media earlier in the day that they were taking a wait-and-see approach before rushing back into the Strait.
Iran isn’t exactly offering all tankers a clean green light. State-linked media have floated the possibility of restricting passage for ships tied to “hostile” countries, while also warning that any continuation of a U.S. naval blockade could shut the Strait again. In other words, access may be conditional—and reversible.
That leaves the market in a familiar place: operational ambiguity.
If these initial tankers make it through, flows will begin to normalize, at least partially. But a handful of vessels does not equal restored capacity. The backlog alone will take significant time to clear, and producers across the region are still dealing with disrupted output and logistics.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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