Global fertiliser producer CF Industries has warned that widespread ammonia plant shutdowns, liquefied natural gas (LNG) shortages and geopolitical disruptions could keep global nitrogen fertiliser markets tight into 2027.
Speaking during the company’s first-quarter earnings call, executives said the conflict involving Iran and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz had intensified an already constrained global market for nitrogen fertilisers such as ammonia and urea.
“The conflict with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz introduced a significant supply shock into this already tight market,” said Bert Frost, Executive Vice-President and CCO.
“At the same time, supply has been constrained by geopolitical conflicts, elevated natural gas prices in Europe, export restrictions and declining natural gas availability in several key producing regions.”
Frost said producers reliant on imported LNG had already been forced to curtail or halt ammonia production due to feedstock shortages.
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“Producers that use imported LNG for nitrogen production have curtailed or shut down facilities due to fuel availability issues,” he said.
CF Industries estimated that 31 ammonia plants in the Middle East had been directly impacted by the conflict or shut down production, while a further 49 plants in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh had either curtailed operations or halted output because of constrained LNG supplies.
The company also pointed to disruption in Russia, with Frost stating that “at least 20 to 21 plants” had been affected by drone attacks linked to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
Based on data up to early 2026, about one-fifth (roughly 20%) of the world’s total LNG trade transited the Strait of Hormuz ©Shutterstock
President and CEO Christopher Bohn warned that even facilities without physical damage could take months to return to normal operations.
“You’re looking at one to three months depending on what type of maintenance was being performed,” he added, referring to ammonia plants that had been shut down during the disruption.
He added that logistical challenges were likely to prolong the disruption further, with vessel movements, freight rates and insurance pressures continuing to affect global trade flows.
“There’s going to be a much longer tail and knock-on effect,” said Bohn.
According to the company, around 1,000 to 1,500 vessels have been caught up behind the Strait of Hormuz disruption, while freight costs have risen sharply as global supply routes adjust.
CF Industries said the situation was exposing the fragility of ammonia production systems reliant on imported LNG and geopolitically exposed supply chains.
“Low-cost feedstock is no longer enough,” said Bohn, arguing that geopolitical risk and energy security were becoming increasingly important factors in global nitrogen production economics.
The company expects tight nitrogen fertiliser supply-demand fundamentals to persist through 2026 and into 2027, with India expected to increase urea imports significantly as domestic LNG-dependent production remains constrained.
