Norwegian oil and gas companies have raised their investment forecasts for 2026 and 2027 compared to estimates three months earlier, though overall capital spending is still on track to decline slightly from the 2025 record. The companies now expect 2026 capex to clock in at NOK 266 billion ($28.64 billion), up from the NOK 255 billion projected in February, while 2027 spending is expected to come in at NOK 207 billion, above the earlier estimate of NOK 201 billion.
Among the primary drivers of the capital spending is a NOK 20 billion redevelopment project spearheaded by ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) to restart production across three previously closed fields in the Greater Ekofisk Area. Drilling work will restart in three previously closed North Sea fields, namely Albuskjell, Vest Ekofisk, and Tommeliten Gamma, with targeted resources of 90–120 million barrels of oil equivalent (gas and condensate) and peak production of 36,000 gross boe per day. The project encompasses drilling of 11 new wells spanning 4 subsea templates, with production tied back to the existing Ekofisk Complex. By utilizing existing infrastructure, ConocoPhillips aims to provide low-cost resources that strengthen Europe’s energy security and gas supply.
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Despite the optimistic revisions, capex is still expected to trend downward because many major projects sanctioned under Norway’s 2022 temporary tax incentives are nearing completion. Further, a significant portion of the rising investment numbers stems from cost increases rather than a larger pipeline of new projects, with ongoing development costs gradually increasing.
Norway remains central to European energy security, producing more than 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, balanced evenly between crude oil and natural gas. While 2027 is expected to see further production dips as older field development projects wrap up, experts have projected that final estimates for next year will likely climb as more fresh projects are officially approved in the coming months.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
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