Nearly 12GW of German electrolysis remains in planning as hydrogen mandates emerge

Despite some 1.3GW of post-final investment decision (FID) green hydrogen projects, Germany’s domestic electrolysis capacity is “stagnating,” according to a new report by the German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW).

The lobby group’s new Q2 report, compiled by the Energy Economics Institute (EWI), found that almost 12GW of projects remain in planning without FID, and just 180MW are currently active.

While EWI’s database tracked more than 13GW of announced projects, well above the national 2030 target of 10GW, it logged only 8.5GW expected online by that date.

It also warned that just 521MW of the 738MW of electrolysis planned to enter operation in 2026 has secured FID, leaving it “highly unclear” whether these will be commissioned on schedule.

The report comes despite a bill mandating green hydrogen to make up 1.2% of transport energy by 2030, rising to 10% by 2040, a move that many said could unlock large-scale production and use.

EWI’s analysis said regulatory uncertainty was a “key factor” in the stagnation, with concerns surrounding future regulatory frameworks.

Identifying 22 hydrogen import pipeline projects and 21 planned border crossing points, it said planned import exceeds domestic production volumes several times over.

Under the previous administration, Germany said imports could meet up to 75% of the country’s domestic green hydrogen demand. However, local trade body DWV recently warned imports should not come at the expense of domestic capacity.

BDEW’s report noted that no pipeline-related import projects have yet reached FID, leaving significant uncertainty over delivery.

The slowing progress raises uncertainty over how much of Germany’s transport mandate can be met through domestic production, increasing reliance on imports.

Luc Graré, CEO of French hydrogen producer Lhyfe, previously said the mandates created demand for around 19,000 tonnes of RFNBO hydrogen “immediately,” due to a 0.1% quota in 2026.

Estimates suggest the 2030 target alone could require up to 225,000 tonnes of green hydrogen per year – equivalent to around 2.5GW of electrolysis.

ICIS in January estimated, even under more modest mandates, Germany was likely to experience a shortfall in green hydrogen supply between 2028 and 2033.