Kuwait Petroleum Company expects it will take considerably longer to restore oil production than many traders appear to assume if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in the coming days. Speaking at the S&P Global Energy Middle East Petroleum and Gas Conference, the company’s managing director for international marketing, Shaikh Khaled Ahmad Al-Sabah, said Kuwait would need six to eight weeks to recover roughly 70% of normal production levels after Hormuz reopens, with the remaining 30% requiring about another month.
Refining operations are expected to recover more quickly, returning to normal within two to three weeks, but the production timeline suggests that a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran would not immediately translate into a full restoration of Gulf oil supplies.
The comments come as U.S. President Donald Trump continues to express confidence that a ceasefire extension and broader agreement with Tehran could be reached within days. Trump said this week that negotiations remain active and that an arrangement to reopen Hormuz could emerge “over the next week,” despite continued military exchanges between the United States and Iran and conflicting signals from Iranian officials.
For oil markets, Kuwait’s estimate provides one of the first concrete indications of what post-Hormuz recovery may actually look like. Much of the market discussion has focused on whether the waterway will reopen, but far less attention has been paid to how quickly producers can restore output after months of disruption. Restarting production involves stabilizing wells, gathering systems, storage facilities, export terminals and logistics networks after prolonged outages.
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The CEO of shipping giant Maersk, Vincent Clerc, recently said reopening Hormuz would have only a limited immediate impact on cargo flows because supply chains and vessel networks have already been fundamentally altered by months of conflict. Freight markets, insurance costs and routing patterns are unlikely to normalize overnight even if a political agreement is reached.
The recovery timeline outlined by Kuwait came just hours before Iranian drones and missiles struck Kuwait International Airport, killing at least one person and damaging Terminal One. The attack forced a temporary suspension of air traffic.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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