Just when the oil market was getting comfortable with the idea that the Strait of Hormuz was reopening, Iran reminded everyone who’s still directing traffic.
Iran’s joint military command warned on Thursday that all oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz must follow routes approved by Tehran or face an “immediate and forceful response.” The warning, carried by Iranian state television, also cautioned that any U.S. interference in the waterway would prompt a “rapid and decisive reaction.”
The warning came a day after U.S. and Iranian negotiators met in Qatar for another round of talks aimed at turning last month’s interim agreement into a broader peace deal. Those discussions reportedly made progress, but the next round is expected only after funeral ceremonies for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei conclude next week.
The latest threat also throws cold water on the increasingly popular narrative that Hormuz is returning to business as usual.
It isn’t.
Yes, tanker traffic has recovered from the near standstill seen during the height of the conflict. But it’s still running well below pre-war levels. According to AP, 258 vessels transited the strait last week, up from 138 the previous week, while traffic this week has settled into roughly 30 to 60 crossings per day—still nowhere near the roughly 130 daily transits seen before the war.
More importantly, Iran isn’t backing away from its insistence that it controls navigation through the world’s most important oil chokepoint.
The interim agreement allows ships to pass toll-free for 60 days, but Tehran continues to argue that it has the authority to dictate routes now and charge transit fees once the temporary arrangement expires. Washington and Gulf Arab states reject that interpretation entirely.
That unresolved dispute matters because oil traders have spent the past week pricing in a rapid return of Gulf exports. Brent has slipped back toward pre-war levels as stranded cargoes finally leave the Persian Gulf and expectations of oversupply return.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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