Russia’s oil production in 2026 and 2027 is set to be lower than previously expected, due to intensified Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil market report on Friday.
Russia produced on average 9.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025. The forecasts for this year and next, however, has been downgraded from previous projections as Ukraine continues to inflict damage on Russia’s storage, refining, and transportation assets.
“Continued strikes on refineries, storage facilities and transport infrastructure underpin a weaker production outlook and we have accordingly cut our Russian supply outlook for this year and next, by 85,000 barrels per day and 150,000 bpd respectively, to average 8.8 million bpd over the forecast period,” the IEA said.
For 2026, the oil supply forecast was cut by 85,000 bpd to 8.9 million, and the 2027 forecast was revised down by nearly twice this year’s downgrade, 150,000 bpd, to 8.8 million.
According to the IEA’s estimates on OPEC+ supply, Russia’s crude oil production increased to 8.86 million bpd in June from 8.74 million bpd in May. However, the crude production in June was 910,000 bpd below Russia’s implied OPEC+ target of 9.76 million bpd, the IEA’s figures showed.
But Russia has increased its crude oil exports in recent months as the Ukrainian campaign to cripple its refineries has led to a domestic fuel crisis and a surge in shipments because domestic storage capacity is very limited.
Ukraine has now expanded its offensive to cripple supply in Russia by targeting fuel supply routes and vessels, alongside a persistent campaign to hit Russian refineries and force them out of operation.
Even Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged two weeks ago there is a problem with fuel supply after regional authorities had tried to downplay the issue for weeks.
Two weeks ago, Putin said that following the temporary ban on exports of gasoline and jet fuel, “We are considering a full ban on exports of diesel fuels.”
The ban on diesel exports is now a fact, as of Wednesday, amid the incessant Ukrainian campaign to slash fuel supply in Russia.
By Michael Ker for Oilprice.com
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