Venture Global Inc.’s belly flop of an IPO isn’t just a setback for the liquefied natural gas-exporting upstart. It may be an early indication of the limits of Wall Street’s enthusiasm for President Donald Trump’s grand energy ambitions.
The timing of the offering last month should have been ideal, coming three days after the inauguration of a leader whose administration has US “energy dominance” — driven by more production and exports of hydrocarbons.
But Venture Global was forced to slash the price range by more than 40% after investors balked at a proposed valuation of $110 billion. After 10 days of trading, the shares are down 30%.
It’s a big disappointment, not just for shareholders including the firm’s billionaire founders and its advisers on the flotation, but also for a broader US energy market that has been starved of IPOs.
To be sure, the case for LNG still has traction. As global energy demand climbs, the fuel is an attractive and practical solution to keeping the lights on, and with fewer emissions than coal.
Trump is a fan, of course. Almost immediately after being sworn in as president, he on new export facilities. He also recognizes the leverage that LNG exports gives him with consuming nations.
But there are obvious risks for investors. China this week singled out US fuel for retaliatory tariffs. That will disrupt exports from Venture Global and its peers, at least in the short term, as trade flows are likely to be rerouted. It also puts longer-term discussions between US and Chinese LNG companies on hold.
Perhaps more disconcertingly, there are long-term threats to the basic economics of the business. AI-led demand growth and constraints on shale production may lead to higher domestic gas prices in the US.
Such an outcome would undermine the fundamental price advantage over other parts of the world that has been fabulously lucrative for US exporters.
Furthermore, just like the oil market, there’s no assurance that LNG prices won’t wilt due to a glut.
The uncertain and cyclical nature of commodity markets is one reason why energy stocks trade at a substantially lower earnings multiple than wider equities — something that Venture Global is now finding out.
—Ruth Liao, Bloomberg News
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