Oil prices climbed to their highest levels in nearly two weeks on Monday morning as fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia and oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz put Middle East supply risks back at the center of the market, outweighing President Donald Trump’s announcements of additional Russian diesel supplies and a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire.
West Texas Intermediate was trading at $93.78 per barrel, up $1.93, or 2.10%, on Monday morning, while Brent crude rose $2.09, or 2.00%, to $106.80 per barrel, according to Oilprice.com data.
The renewed buying followed a weekend of attacks on Saudi Arabia, including a Houthi strike on Riyadh’s international airport on Saturday that killed 13 people and wounded more than 300. Further attacks were reported Sunday, while two tankers were struck near Oman and in the Strait of Hormuz.
The tanker attacks threaten to interrupt the recovery in Gulf oil exports, which reached 81% of prewar levels in September. Crude and condensate shipments had recovered to 91%, but refined-product exports remained at just 60%.
Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $90 per barrel from $85, estimating that geopolitical risks are currently adding just over $20 per barrel to oil prices.
The price increase comes as OPEC has sharply reduced its expectations for global oil demand growth this year. OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said Monday that the producer group now expects demand to grow by just 400,000 barrels per day in 2026, down from the 1.4 million bpd it forecast at the beginning of the year.
OPEC expects much of the demand deferred during this year’s disruptions to return in 2027. The group had already cut its 2026 growth estimate to 380,000 bpd in September, meaning Monday’s 400,000-bpd figure is actually a slight increase from last month’s forecast even though it represents a 1-million-bpd reduction from OPEC’s outlook at the beginning of the year.
The International Energy Agency expects an even deeper demand hit this year, forecasting a 2.5-million-bpd decline in global consumption in 2026 followed by a 2.6-million-bpd rebound in 2027.
Additional Russian barrels could put some downward pressure on fuel prices. Trump said Friday that Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tons, or roughly 2.25 million barrels, of diesel to U.S. and global markets, with additional supplies to follow. Moscow has also partially lifted restrictions on diesel exports, allowing another 500,000 tons, or about 3.7 million barrels, onto the international market.
Trump also announced Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacking each other’s energy infrastructure. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of violating the agreement on Monday.
In the Gulf of Mexico, Shell, Chevron and BP were preparing to restore offshore production after Hurricane Isaias disrupted operations over the weekend.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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