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28 min ago 2 min read
Even if a ceasefire were reached tomorrow in the Middle East and a firm agreement secured to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, helium exports would be unlikely to resume in the fourth quarter of 2026 or even the first quarter of 2027.
That was the outlook shared by Megan Sutcliffe, Principal Analyst at Sibylline, Middle East and Africa, who said that geopolitical uncertainty is business as usual during the opening keynote on day one of gasworld’s Helium Super Summit in Houston.
“Do not expect markets or the way in which business operates will return to the pre-conflict conditions that we saw at the beginning of the year. The Middle East has changed, and it will continue to change,” she shared.
Qatar accounts for approximately 30% of the world’s helium capacity, and over 80% of Qatar’s output is produced as a by-product of liquefied natural gas (LNG) production from its Helium 1 and Helium 2 facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City.
Until the Strait of Hormuz reopens, helium exports from Qatar cannot resume, resulting in a third of global supply remaining offline.
Looking at the outlook for 2027, Sutcliffe said that while the pattern of US-Iran tensions this year is informative, it is not deterministic.
She noted the most likely scenario will see Iran retain control of the Strait of Hormuz, gaining unprecedented international leverage.
“Iran’s increasingly institutionalised control of the Strait of Hormuz will effectively serve not only as a source of revenue for the Islamic Republic, but also as a source of strategic leverage and political influence over global maritime trade and industries, such as helium.”
However, Sutcliffe said the most dangerous outcome would see major combat operations trigger the collapse of the Islamic Republic.
“This essentially would result in a situation that we have coined the phrase as being complexity, chaos, and corruption reigning.
“These are situations that each and every producer in this room should prepare for, even in the event of the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a ceasefire being signed tomorrow.”
