While nine out of ten key energy transition metals are back on track to deliver sufficient supply by 2050, a total of $332 billion of investment is needed in new copper mines to avoid a looming copper deficit that could slow electrification, BloombergNEF said in its Transition Metals Outlook 2026 on Tuesday.
In recent years, supply of key energy transition metals has improved considerably, with the exception of copper, which is still expected to see a shortfall through 2050, unless billions of dollars are invested in new supply.
Lithium, graphite, cobalt, aluminum, nickel, manganese, steel, platinum, and palladium are all expected to have sufficient long-term supply capacity to support electrification through 2050, as global shortages have eased significantly, BNEF says.
However, copper remains the major exception in this group of critical metals.
BNEF expects a supply deficit in the global copper markets to begin in 2028 and widen to as much as 20 million metric tons by 2050. This deficit would be equivalent to 44% of projected global demand.
Meanwhile, global copper demand is expected to jump by 61% between 2026 and 2050, reaching nearly 46 million tons. Copper demand for electrified transport alone is forecast to soar by 244% to 11.4 million tons.
“The shortfall could push up prices, force manufacturers to use alternative materials and slow the deployment of electric vehicles, batteries and electricity grids,” the research provider said.
“Even with the necessary investment, bringing new mines into operation takes an average of 17 years, meaning the shortfall could persist for decades,” according to BNEF.
The outlook also found that despite the West’s diversification efforts, China continues to dominate metals refining globally, which raises supply security concerns. Eight of the 10 materials studied have more than half their refining capacity concentrated in a single country; seven of these are in China, BNEF noted.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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