The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) further raised its U.S. crude oil production forecast for 2026 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month.
According to its October STEO, the EIA now sees U.S. crude oil output, including lease condensate, averaging 13.87 million barrels per day this year. The EIA’s October STEO is the latest in a line of STEOs which increased the EIA’s U.S. oil production prediction for the year.
In its September STEO, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil output would come in at 13.83 million barrels per day. The EIA’s August STEO saw this production at 13.80 million barrels per day, its July STEO saw U.S. crude oil output coming in at 13.78 million barrels per day in 2026, its June STEO projected that U.S. crude oil output would average 13.72 million barrels per day this year, its May STEO saw this production averaging 13.65 million barrels per day in 2026, and in its April STEO projected that this output would average 13.51 million barrels per day in 2026.
The EIA’s March STEO saw U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, averaging 13.61 million barrels per day this year.
Looking at 2027, the EIA’s October STEO boosted its projection to 14.30 million barrels per day. The organization’s oil production forecast for 2027 stood at 14.26 million barrels per day in September, 14.15 million barrels per day in August, and 14.03 million barrels per day in July. The EIA’s June STEO saw 2027 output coming in at 14.15 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil production has never averaged 14 million barrels per day or above annually, or even monthly, according to EIA figures. The country’s oil output has averaged 13 million barrels per day on two occasions annually, and on multiple occasions monthly, EIA figures highlighted.
A data page on the EIA site displaying annual U.S. field production of crude oil – which was last updated on September 30 and includes data from 1859 to 2025 – showed that the highest average annual U.S. field production of crude oil figure was seen in 2025, at 13.662 million barrels per day. Before this, annual U.S. field production of crude oil had only averaged 13 million barrels per day in one other year – 2024, at 13.267 million barrels per day – the EIA data revealed.
A data page on the EIA website displaying monthly U.S. field production of crude oil – which was also last updated on September 30 and includes data from January 1920 to July 2026 – showed that the highest average monthly U.S. field production of crude oil figure was seen in October 2025, at 13.995 million barrels per day.
The second highest figure was seen in April 2026, at 13.981 million barrels per day, and the third highest figure came in July 2026, at 13.948 million barrels per day, according to the data page.
Monthly U.S. field output of crude oil has averaged 13 million barrels per day on 37 occasions, the data page showed. Seven of these were seen in 2026, 12 were seen in 2025, 11 came in 2024, five came in 2023, and two came in 2019, the data page highlighted.
Where Does USA Output Come From?
In its October STEO, the EIA projected that Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, will contribute 11.39 million barrels per day to the total projected figure of 13.87 million barrels per day for U.S. crude oil production in 2026.
The Federal Gulf of America is expected to contribute 2.03 million barrels per day and Alaska is expected to contribute 0.45 million barrels per day, the STEO showed.
Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, are expected to make up 11.89 million barrels per day of the total projected figure of 14.30 million barrels per day for 2027, the STEO highlighted. The Federal Gulf of America contributes 1.90 million barrels per day, and Alaska makes up 0.51 million barrels per day, the STEO projected.
The EIA’s October STEO showed that total U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.66 million barrels per day in 2025. Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, made up 11.30 million barrels per day of that total figure, the Federal Gulf of America made up 1.94 million barrels per day, and Alaska made up 0.42 million barrels per day, the STEO highlighted.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO projected that total U.S. crude oil output, including lease condensate, will average 14.05 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 13.88 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 14.13 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 14.26 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 14.32 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 14.50 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
This breakdown showed that total U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.58 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, 13.88 million barrels per day in the second quarter, and 13.95 million barrels per day in the third quarter.
Total U.S. crude oil production came in at 13.32 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025, 13.58 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.82 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.91 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, according to the EIA’s July STEO.
Global Standing
Global crude oil production is expected to average 75.40 million barrels per day in 2026 in the EIA’s October STEO.
The total projected 2026 U.S. crude oil output figure of 13.87 million barrels per day makes up 18.39 percent of that total, the STEO outlines. OPEC+ countries are expected to deliver 29.54 million barrels per day of the global total this year, while non-OPEC+ countries, excluding the U.S., are projected to supply 31.99 million barrels per day, the STEO shows.
In 2027, global crude oil production is expected to come in at 81.50 million barrels per day in the EIA’s latest STEO.
The total projected 2027 U.S. crude oil output figure of 14.30 million barrels per day makes up 17.54 percent of that total, the STEO points out. OPEC+ countries are expected to deliver 33.38 million barrels per day of the global total next year, while non-OPEC+ countries, excluding the U.S., are projected to supply 33.81 million barrels per day, the STEO highlights.
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