Russia’s crude exports from its western ports could fall by as much as 200,000 barrels per day in November as refiners increase diesel production under Moscow’s new agreement with Washington, according to preliminary loading schedules cited by Reuters on Tuesday.
Two traders expect shipments from Russia’s Baltic and Black Sea ports to decline by 100,000 to 200,000 bpd from October. The estimates include Kazakh crude transported through Russian pipelines.
Russian refineries have increased processing since the October 9 diesel agreement between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, helped by the return of facilities from maintenance. Moscow has issued new diesel export quotas after restricting shipments earlier this year to address domestic fuel shortages, while Washington has eased sanctions on Russian fuel exports.
The arrangement gives Russia an opportunity to increase diesel sales during a global fuel shortage, although its refineries will need more crude to sustain higher processing rates. Russian oil production, however, has been declining for months.
OPEC secondary-source estimates put September production at 8.64 million bpd, the lowest since mid-2020 and the tenth consecutive monthly decline. Moscow also lowered its 2026 production forecast in September to a 17-year low.
Russia’s seaborne crude exports were already struggling in October. Shipments averaged 3.59 million bpd in the four weeks through October 18, down 110,000 bpd from the previous period. Weekly exports fell to 3.13 million bpd, their lowest since March, following a temporary suspension of loading at Primorsk.
At Novorossiysk, crude loadings are facing delays of nearly three weeks, according to the traders, with threats to shipping in the Black Sea limiting exports. Further Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries could also derail plans to increase diesel production in November, leaving more crude available for export than currently expected.
Less Urals crude is also expected to move through the Northern Sea Route as Arctic navigation winds down for the season.
Russia’s ability to increase diesel exports will depend on refinery availability and sufficient crude supply, both of which remain constrained after months of Ukrainian attacks and declining domestic production.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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