Turkey wants nearly 200 countries attending COP31 to commit to increasing electricity’s share of global energy consumption to 35% by 2035, up from roughly 20% today. The proposed pledge, however, contains no requirement to actually reduce fossil fuel consumption.
That distinction is attracting attention as climate negotiators gather in Antalya to discuss how quickly the world should move away from oil, gas and coal.
Turkey’s proposal would measure progress by the percentage of final energy demand supplied by electricity. It does not specify how that electricity must be generated, meaning coal- and gas-fired power would count toward the target.
Nor would reaching 35% necessarily mean the world was consuming less fossil fuel in absolute terms.
Turkey is seeking to incorporate the voluntary electrification pledge into the conference’s final agreement, although support remains uncertain.
The issue is particularly relevant to the countries running the negotiations. Coal supplied approximately one-third of Turkey’s electricity last year and more than 40% of Australia’s. Australia is chairing the negotiations.
Electrifying transportation, heating and industrial processes can reduce direct fossil fuel consumption and improve energy efficiency. The emissions reductions, however, depend partly on the sources generating the additional electricity.
Portugal has called for the proposed target to be explicitly linked to clean electricity.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, meanwhile, urged governments Tuesday to establish clear timelines for moving away from fossil fuels.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had his own energy announcement Monday: the discovery of two oilfields in the Gabar region containing an estimated 135 million barrels of oil in place.
Turkey expects production from the region to exceed 100,000 barrels per day in the second half of 2027, up from approximately 84,000 bpd currently.
The discovery estimate does not establish how much oil can ultimately be recovered commercially.
The competing priorities illustrate the challenge facing COP31. Governments want to expand electricity use, improve energy security and reduce emissions while maintaining access to affordable energy.
The proposed pledge offers a measurable electrification target. Whether it delivers meaningful reductions in fossil fuel consumption will depend on how countries meet it.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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