European benchmark natural gas prices rebounded on Wednesday from the one-month low hit on Tuesday, as uncertainty about the Iran war returned to the energy markets following steep selloffs in recent days.
The front-month price at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, rose by 2.7% as of 9:30 a.m. in Amsterdam on Wednesday, topping $96.85 (87 euros) per megawatt-hour (MWh).
Prices rebounded from the one-month low of $91.30 (82 euros) per MWh from earlier this week, when the oil and gas markets slumped amid signals from U.S. President Donald Trump that he wasn’t planning another attack on Iran “at this point”. The President, however, noted that the U.S. remains “locked and loaded” in case a new military campaign becomes necessary.
On Wednesday, oil prices rose – and European gas prices followed – as traders grew less optimistic about a peace deal between the United States and Iran amid continuing tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
While Wednesday’s European gas price was well below the four-year high of over 101.82 euros ($114) per MWh at the end of October, prices are still way higher compared to this time last year.
Europe remains in a vulnerable gas supply position ahead of winter proper as LNG flows from the Strait of Hormuz are still way below pre-war levels and QatarEnergy has extended the force majeure on deliveries until the end of December 2026, at the very least.
EU storage sites were 72% full as of November 10, per data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, well below the five-year average for this time of the year at the start of the heating season. As temperatures drop and the heating season begins, the storage levels have started to fall as withdrawals have begun in most EU countries.
The global gas market could remain tight well into next year as Europe enters the heating season with the lowest levels of gas in storage in over a decade, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report last week.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
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