Global oil demand has made a strong start to 2025, analysts at Standard Chartered Bank, including Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell, said in a report sent to Rigzone by Horsnell on Thursday.
“Based on a variety of national sources and the 19 March Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) release, we estimate that demand averaged 102.77 million barrels per day in January, a year on year increase of 2.19 million barrels per day,” the Standard Chartered Bank analysts said in the report.
“This is in line with the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimate for January that put demand at 102.74 million barrels per day and growth at 1.85 million barrels per day,” they added.
In the report, the Standard Chartered Bank analysts noted that January is usually the seasonal low point for global demand and said they expect demand “to move above 105.0 million barrels per day for the first time in June before reaching a 2025 high of 105.6 million barrels per day in August”.
“Our forecast for 2025 demand growth stands at 1.41 million barrels per day. After weakening in H2-2024, our forecast is now back where it stood at its initiation in January 2024,” they added.
“While the main downside risk to demand comes from U.S. tariff policy and the economic uncertainty it creates, for now demand-side fundamentals appear robust despite negative sentiment,” they continued.
The Standard Chartered Bank analysts stated in the report that they expect global demand to exceed supply by 0.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter and by 0.5 million barrels per day in the third quarter.
Rigzone has contacted the Trump transition team and the White House for comment on Standard Chartered Bank’s report. At the time of writing, neither have responded to Rigzone.
In a research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team late Wednesday, analysts at J.P. Morgan said, “as of March 18, global oil demand averaged 101.8 million barrels per day, a year over year increase of 1.5 million barrels per day, aligning with our monthly projections”.
In a separate research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on March 12, J.P. Morgan analysts stated that, “as of March 11, global oil demand averaged 102.2 million barrels per day, expanding 1.7 million barrels per day year over year and exceeding our projected increase for the month by 60,000 barrels per day”.
In another research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on March 5, analysts at J.P. Morgan said, “in February, global oil demand averaged 103.6 million barrels per day, marking a year over year increase of 1.6 million barrels per day and falling short of our projected 1.8 million barrel per day rise for the month”.
“As we transition into March, demand for oil is expected to be primarily driven by gasoline and jet fuel, while the need for heating oil is anticipated to decline,” the analysts added in that research note.
In its latest short term energy outlook, which was released last week, the EIA projected that global consumption will average 104.13 million barrels per day in 2025 and 105.30 million barrels per day in 2026.
That STEO forecast that demand will come in at 103.85 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, 103.74 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 104.46 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 104.45 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 104.72 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026, 104.98 million barrels per day in the second quarter of next year, 105.77 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 105.74 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
In its previous STEO, which was released in February, the EIA projected that global consumption would average 104.14 million barrels per day in 2025 and 105.18 million barrels per day in 2026.
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