China CPI Jumps as Middle East Crisis Pushes Energy Costs Higher

China’s consumer inflation accelerated to 1.2% in April, topping analyst estimates, as the Middle East crisis drove a surge in energy prices.

The Chinese consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.2% last month from a year earlier, accelerating from 1% annual inflation in March, data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday.

The CPI exceeded an analyst consensus estimate of 0.9% inflation last month.

The core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, also accelerated to 1.2% in April from a year earlier, according to the data.

The CPI increased by 0.3% in April compared to March, reversing a 0.7% monthly decline in March and exceeding the seasonal level by 0.4 percentage point, the official Chinese data showed.

The producer price index (PPI), the producer inflation, soared in April to the highest since July 2022, mostly due to the energy supply shock in the Middle East.

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Inflation is accelerating across Asian markets where energy buyers scramble for supply while producers and consumers feel the rising energy costs.

In India, the second-largest crude oil importer in Asia and the third-biggest in the world, inflation is also set to have accelerated in April.

The annual consumer price index (CPI) is expected to have jumped to 3.8% in April, up from 3.4% in March, a Reuters poll of 46 economists showed last week.

Responses in the poll, carried out between May 4 and May 8, ranged from 2.8% to 4.2%. Official data is expected on May 12.

All economists concur that the effects of the higher energy prices have begun to take their toll on consumer prices, even if the average forecast is below the 4% inflation target of India’s central bank.

India has cut taxes on gasoline and diesel prices to protect consumers, but eventually retail fuel prices would rise if the supply shock persists, analysts say.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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