China’s CO2 Emissions Have Been Flat for 18 Months Straight

China has seen its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions keep a flat or falling trend for 18 consecutive months as electric vehicles and renewable energy uptake soars, a new analysis for Carbon Brief showed on Tuesday.

CO2 emissions in China, the world’s biggest polluter, were unchanged from a year earlier in the third quarter of 2025, extending a flat or falling trend that started in March 2024, the analysis found.

The rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) helped CO2 emissions from transport fuel drop by 5% year-on-year in the third quarter, while there were also declines from cement and steel production, which decelerated amid weaker demand.

China’s CO2 emissions from the power sector remained flat in the third quarter despite stronger electricity demand growth with the consumption increase accelerating to 6.1%, up from 3.7% growth in the first half of the year, according to the analysis for Carbon Brief.

The flat emissions amid rising power demand were the result of solar power generation surging by 46% and wind electricity jumping by 11% from a year earlier in Q3.

China completed 240 gigawatts (GW) of solar and 61 GW of wind capacity in the first nine months of the year. This puts the country on track for a new renewable record in 2025, the analysis found.

Oil demand and emissions in the transport sector fell by 5% in the third quarter, but grew elsewhere by 10%, as the production of plastics and other chemicals surged.

In September, China pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by up to 10% by 2035 compared to peak levels, while “striving to do better”, President Xi Jinping said in a videotaped message to a UN climate summit in New York.

With the Trump Administration abandoning emissions pledges and the fight against climate change, analysts see China as potentially taking over the global leadership in the push to reduce emissions and limit global warming.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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