This year’s milder winter, weak industrial demand, and higher gas pipeline imports are set to result in the first decline in China’s LNG imports since 2022, according to estimates by research firms compiled by Reuters.
Last year, China imported a total of 76.65 million metric tons of LNG. This year, the volume is set to be between 6% and 11% lower compared to 2024 levels.
In the first four months of 2025, Chinese imports of the super-chilled fuel slumped to 20 million tons, down from 29 million tons for the same period of 2024.
LNG import demand in China has been weaker this year amid comfortably full winter inventories. Demand in the spring has been weighed down by weaker consumption growth in the industrial and chemicals sectors.
Even if there is a rebound in demand in the latter half of 2025, China is still set for an annual decline in LNG purchases, analysts say.
Part of the weaker LNG imports is also attributable to increased gas pipeline supply from Russia and central Asia, as well as rising domestic natural gas output. These two sources of gas supply are cheaper than the LNG option.
China’s weakness in LNG demand would be welcome news for the rest of Asia and Europe this summer and going into the winter.
Asia’s currently tepid LNG demand is set to become robust during the summer months as models suggest higher-than-usual temperatures across north Asia.
Following the off-peak spring season, demand in both Europe and Asia is set to increase in peak summer and remain high through the autumn as Europe needs a lot more LNG to fill up its gas storage sites depleted below the five-year average after the end of a colder winter.
Increased demand would be a boon to U.S. LNG exporters, which are also ramping up supply with new export plants.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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