Crude futures slumped on Monday, extending their biggest single-day slide in weeks as OPEC+ signaled it may press ahead with another round of output increases despite production shortfalls across the group. By 12:48 p.m. ET, benchmark contracts were down more than 3%, reflecting both cartel politics and shifting supply expectations.
Brent crude was at $67.88 per barrel, a drop of $2.25 or 3.21%, while West Texas Intermediate fell $2.37 to $63.35, down 3.61%. The sell-off came as reports circulated that OPEC+ ministers are preparing to add fresh barrels in November, even as actual output remains hundreds of thousands of barrels per day below target.
Brent’s slip under $70 reflected how quickly the market adjusted once OPEC+ signaled more supply for the fourth quarter. The trouble is that many producers are already stretched, leaving a widening gap between announced increases and actual exports. That shortfall is feeding skepticism over whether the group still has the capacity to manage prices as effectively as in past cycles.
Adding to the unease, new tanker-tracking data from Kpler indicated Russia’s September seaborne crude exports slid to 2.96 million barrels per day, the lowest since April 2022. The steepest drops came from Baltic and Black Sea loadings. That tally contrasts with Bloomberg’s four-week moving average of 3.62 million barrels per day through September 21, underscoring the volatility in measuring Moscow’s shipments.
The latest OPEC+ signals come as Russia’s export data sends mixed messages, leaving the market to examine both policy guidance and actual shipping flows. Seasonal demand shifts are adding another layer, with refiners in Asia trimming spot activity while U.S. product consumption moves into its autumn lull.
By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com
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