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Drill Baby Drill? Not So Much – Bernstein Sees Modest Pullback in Upstream Capex in 2025

Business & Policy
February 10, 2025

** “We see an upstream sector that returns a bit over half its cash flow while investing a bit under half” – brokerage

** Bernstein says that the supply side has reallocated capital toward downstream, renewables, trading, and cash returns to shareholders, more rapidly than the pace at which the demand side is transitioning to new energy sources

** Brokerage expects upstream spend declining ~1% to nearly $600 billion in 2025, inclusive of about $59 billion allocated toward exploration for new resources

** Bernstein sees onshore investment falling below 2023 levels and projects oil supply to remain virtually flat for 2025

Brokerage cuts price target on the following firms:

Company / New PT / Old PT / Upside to stock’s last close

/ $125 / $133 / 27.1%

/ $173 / $175 / 13.4%29dk2902l

Hess / $177 / $179 / 23.8%

(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru; Editing by Tasim Zahid)