Colombia’s Ecopetrol is pressing ahead with a 2026 spending plan of 22–27 trillion pesos ($5.9–$7.2 billion), essentially holding the line from this year despite a political climate that couldn’t be more hostile to hydrocarbons. The company says the money will be deployed “with discipline,” which in Ecopetrol-speak means: drill aggressively enough to keep the lights on, but not so aggressively that Bogotá accuses you of sabotaging the energy transition.
The plan calls for 380–430 development wells next year, almost all in Colombia, plus a handful of exploratory wells. Around 70% of the total budget is earmarked for production, with Ecopetrol forecasting 730,000–740,000 boe/d in 2026 — basically the same level it fought to maintain in 2025 after hitting record H1 output of 751,000 boe/d. The kicker is that the entire plan is based on $60 Brent and a 4,050 peso exchange rate, both conservative assumptions that tell you the company expects no favors from the macro backdrop.
The bigger story is what Ecopetrol’s spending says about Colombia’s bind. President Gustavo Petro has halted new exploration, banned fracking, and layered on new taxes that gutted foreign investment — all while proven reserves have shrunk to barely eight years of supply. Yet production remains the country’s main export earner and one of the last reliable sources of fiscal revenue. That contradiction leaves Ecopetrol doing the heavy lifting: sweating existing fields harder, squeezing lifting costs below $12/bbl, and leaning on U.S. Permian acreage to diversify away from Colombia’s political risk.
The company’s partners have taken the hint. Foreign investment in Colombia’s oil sector has eroded for a decade, with majors scaling back or walking away entirely. Ecopetrol has responded by pursuing production-sharing deals on mature fields and doubling down on blocks like CPO-09, where its own finds are some of the few bright spots left.
Ecopetrol’s 2026 blueprint isn’t trying to impress anyone; it’s a survival plan dressed up as a budget. The government keeps tightening the leash on exploration, reserves are shrinking, and foreign investors are jittery. Someone has to keep the barrels flowing, and right now that someone is Ecopetrol. The company is doing what it can with the ground it already controls: drill what’s drillable, squeeze every peso out of efficiency, and buy time for a country that hasn’t decided what should replace oil and still depends on it more than almost anything else.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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