U.S. crude oil production surged to an all-time high in March, reaching 13.488 million barrels per day, according to newly released monthly EIA data. That edges out the previous monthly record of 13.450 million bpd set in October 2024, and an increase over the 13.153 million bpd in February. The increase reflects steady momentum from the Permian and Gulf Coast operators—even as drilling activity slows elsewhere.
But while the supply side flexed its muscle, demand told a different story.
Total petroleum product supplied—a broad proxy for U.S. oil demand—fell to 19.95 million bpd (Table 3), the lowest in a year and down from 20.225 million bpd in February, which was a decrease from January. The soft patch in consumption raises red flags for refiners and exporters heading into the summer driving season, especially with inventories climbing.
Crude imports for March clocked in at 178.4 million barrels, according to EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly, slightly higher than February in total barrels, thanks to the longer month—but still lower on a daily average basis. Finished product imports came in at 17.8 million barrels, led by gasoline blending components and jet fuel.
Despite record output, U.S. drillers are pulling back. The rig count fell for the fifth straight week in May, dropping to 563—the lowest since late 2021. Oil-directed rigs fell to 461, with losses in both the Permian and New Mexico. Capital discipline remains the mantra as producers focus on debt reduction and shareholder returns.
The divergence is stark: America is producing more oil than ever, but running fewer rigs, spending less, and—at least for now—selling into a softening domestic market. The result? An uneasy balance of record supply and sliding demand that could define the summer oil narrative.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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