In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on November 6, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its U.S. crude oil production forecast for 2025 and 2026 but still projected a dip in output from this year to next year.
According to its November STEO, the EIA now sees U.S. crude oil output, including lease condensate, averaging 13.59 million barrels per day overall in 2025 and 13.58 million barrels per day in 2026. U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, averaged 13.23 million barrels per day in 2024, the EIA’s November STEO showed.
The EIA sees U.S. crude oil output coming in at 13.82 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of this year, 13.67 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 13.60 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.47 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.57 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, according to its latest STEO.
The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in October, projected that U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, would average 13.53 million barrels per day in 2025 and 13.51 million barrels per day in 2026.
In that STEO, the EIA forecast that production would come in at 13.66 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, 13.62 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 13.53 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.40 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.48 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
In its September STEO, the EIA saw U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, averaging 13.44 million barrels per day overall in 2025 and 13.30 million barrels per day in 2026.
That STEO projected that U.S. crude oil output would average 13.49 million barrels per day in the third quarter of this year, 13.51 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 13.45 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026, 13.39 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.20 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.17 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of next year.
A data page on the EIA site displaying monthly U.S. field production of crude oil, which was last updated on October 31 and which includes data from January 1920 to August 2025, showed that monthly U.S. field production of crude oil averaged 13.794 million barrels per day in August.
This figure is the highest in the data set, with the second highest figure coming in July, at 13.708 million barrels per day, and the third highest figure coming in June, at 13.610 million barrels per day.
A data page on the EIA site displaying annual U.S. field production of crude oil, which was also last updated on October 31 and which includes data from 1859 to 2024, showed that annual U.S. field production of crude oil averaged 13.235 million barrels per day in 2024. Prior to this, annual U.S. field production of crude oil had never averaged 13 million barrels per day or more, the data revealed. The closest it came to an annual average of 13 million barrels per day was in 2023, at 12.943 million barrels per day, the data showed.
Production Breakdown
The EIA’s latest STEO forecast that Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, will contribute 11.26 million barrels per day of the total projected figure of U.S. crude oil production for 2025 and 11.13 million barrels per day of the total projected figure for 2026.
The Federal Gulf of America is expected to contribute 1.91 million barrels per day to this year’s total projected figure and 1.97 million barrels per day to next year’s total projected figure, the STEO showed. Alaska is projected to contribute 0.42 million barrels per day to this year’s expected total figure and 0.48 million barrels per day to next year’s expected total figure, the STEO revealed.
In its October STEO, the EIA saw Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, contributing 11.22 million barrels per day of that STEO’s total projected figure for 2025 and 11.10 million barrels per day of that STEO’s total projected figure for 2026. The Federal Gulf of America was expected to contribute 1.89 million barrels per day to the 2025 total projected figure and 1.96 million barrels per day to the 2026 total projected figure, that STEO showed. Alaska was expected to contribute 0.42 million barrels per day to the 2025 expected total figure and 0.45 million barrels per day to the 2026 expected total figure, the October STEO revealed.
In its September STEO, the EIA forecast that Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, would contribute 11.18 million barrels per day of that STEO’s total projected figure for 2025 and 10.96 million barrels per day of that STEO’s total projected figure for 2026. The Federal Gulf of America was expected to contribute 1.84 million barrels per day to the 2025 total projected figure and 1.90 million barrels per day to the 2026 total projected figure, that STEO showed. Alaska was expected to contribute 0.43 million barrels per day to the 2025 expected total figure and 0.44 million barrels per day to the 2026 expected total figure, the EIA’s September STEO revealed.
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