Annual analysis explains changing U.S. load expectations, expanding long-term oil supply potential in Venezuela and selective investments across the energy transition
AUSTIN, Texas (Jan. 13, 2026) — , the leading energy SaaS and analytics platform, is releasing its 2026 Global Energy Outlook, a comprehensive overview that frames the year around hydrocarbon prices, power system realities, upstream efficiency, selective low‑carbon investment and geopolitical risks such as evolving conditions in Venezuela and Iran that continue to influence global oil supply sentiment.
Enverus’ latest outlook calls for Brent crude oil to average about $55 per barrel in 2026, Henry Hub natural gas to average about $3.80 per MMBtu this winter and $3.60 next summer, Permian Basin gas supply to rise ~1.1 Bcf/d by year end, and European TTF natural gas to hold near $10–$12 per MMBtu as power markets lean more on firm capacity and grid reliability.
“2026 is a year of recalibration as capital focuses on specific winners like gas-fired generation and landfill RNG, grid operators tightening AI-driven load forecasts, and data centers move toward behind-the-meter generation,” noted Ian Nieboer, managing director of Enverus Intelligence® Research.
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Dane Gregoris, managing director at Enverus Intelligence® Research added, “Our work shows oil prices will reset lower in 2026 without signaling long-term scarcity. Upstream operators will continue to push for efficiency gains while capital stays highly selective.”
Key takeaways:
- Oil prices reset before recovering. Brent is projected to average about $55/bbl in 2026 with first half weakness followed by second half stock draws as markets weigh geopolitical headlines from Venezuela, Iran and Russia.
- Gas benchmarks remain constructive. Henry Hub averages about $3.80/MMBtu in winter and $3.60/MMBtu next summer, while TTF stays near $10–$12/MMBtu amid steady global LNG demand and renewable balancing needs.
- Associated gas rises with new takeaway. Permian gas supply is expected to increase ~1.1 Bcf/d by year end 2026 as pipeline expansions progress toward Gulf Coast markets.
- Power markets absorb last year’s policy changes. Expect increased renewable portfolio distress and divestitures, gas-fired generation M&A to remain hot (above $1 million/MW), and BESS to reach saturation in some markets (ERCOT).
- Independent System Operators (ISOs) tighten AI driven load assumptions leading to lower ISO load forecasts. Meanwhile, utility reforms push more data centers to seek behind-the meter generation.
- Capital to remain selective across transition technologies. Landfill renewable natural gas (RNG) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) screen as winners on aftertax returns basis, while hydrogen and manure-based renewable natural gas (RNG) face headwinds from weaker incentives and market signals.
Enverus’ analysis pulls from a variety of products including , , , , , and .
Authored by more than 120 experts and proprietary datasets, Enverus has created a publicly available e‑book of its 2026 Global Energy Outlook containing insights across natural gas, power, upstream, and M&A for professionals in finance, operations, renewables, and oilfield services.
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