European Natural Gas Prices Surge as Winter Cold and Geopolitics Collide

Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices were headed on Friday for their largest monthly gain since 2023 as cold snaps in January boosted heating and power demand and fast-draining storage sites fueled a market rally.

The front-month Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, were on track for a 38% monthly gain on Friday, the biggest advance in one month since the summer of 2023, when a supply crunch sent prices skyrocketing.

On Friday morning in Amsterdam, the benchmark price was 1.3% higher on the day, at $46.59 (39.085 euros) per megawatt-hour (MWh). To compare, the price was $34.60 (29 euros) per MWh at the beginning of January.

With cold spells throughout January, including the big freeze in the United States that briefly reduced feedgas flows to the U.S. LNG export plants, traders have sharply turned bullish on European gas.

Speculators and fund managers started to aggressively buy the market, shifting from a net short of 55.1 TWh to a net long of 57.7 TWh over the reporting week to January 20, Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, wrote in a note last week.

To further fuel the price rally, below-average winter temperatures are driving the fastest pace of withdrawals from natural gas storage in Europe in five years, as heating demand is rising.

In addition, global gas benchmark prices have jumped in recent weeks as Arctic weather has gripped most of the northern hemisphere, including the United States and Asia.

European prices have also rallied in the past two days due to the escalating U.S.-Iran rhetoric.

On Thursday alone, the TTF price jumped by 4%.

“Escalation between the US and Iran puts a significant portion of LNG supply at risk. Qatar, the second-largest exporter, ships volumes through the Strait of Hormuz,” ING commodities strategists said on Friday, adding that Qatar accounted for about 19% of global LNG exports in 2025.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

 

  • Related Posts

    China’s Refiners Turn to Africa and Brazil Crude as Freight Rates Ease

    China’s refiners are buying crude oil from West Africa and Brazil after freight rates eased in the past two weeks, while competition for Russian supply is stronger and Iranian barrels…

    QatarEnergy Extends LNG Force Majeure to End of 2026

    State-owned firm QatarEnergy has extended the force majeure on LNG deliveries to the end of the year, leaving Europe and Asia without certain term supply heading into the winter, in…

    Have You Seen?

    Bahri Profit Hits $1.36 Billion as the World Scrambles for Tankers

    • October 28, 2026
    Bahri Profit Hits $1.36 Billion as the World Scrambles for Tankers

    QatarEnergy Extends LNG Force Majeure to End of 2026

    • October 28, 2026
    QatarEnergy Extends LNG Force Majeure to End of 2026

    China’s Refiners Turn to Africa and Brazil Crude as Freight Rates Ease

    • October 28, 2026
    China’s Refiners Turn to Africa and Brazil Crude as Freight Rates Ease

    ErreDue to supply two PEM electrolysers to jewellery firm

    • October 28, 2026
    ErreDue to supply two PEM electrolysers to jewellery firm

    Biomethane ‘left behind’ in UK Budget, says trade association

    • October 28, 2026
    Biomethane ‘left behind’ in UK Budget, says trade association

    UK-Taiwan launch CCUS partnership

    • October 28, 2026
    UK-Taiwan launch CCUS partnership

    UK Budget cuts carbon capture grants as Acorn faces funding uncertainty

    • October 28, 2026
    UK Budget cuts carbon capture grants as Acorn faces funding uncertainty

    Equinor Profits Triple as Oil and Gas Prices Surge

    • October 28, 2026
    Equinor Profits Triple as Oil and Gas Prices Surge

    China’s Wind and Solar Power Capacity Surpasses 2 Terawatts

    • October 28, 2026
    China’s Wind and Solar Power Capacity Surpasses 2 Terawatts

    India’s Gasoline Demand Could Peak by 2035 as EVs Gain Ground

    • October 28, 2026
    India’s Gasoline Demand Could Peak by 2035 as EVs Gain Ground