Exxon Crushes Q3 Forecasts on Record Guyana and Permian Output

Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) topped Wall Street expectations for the third quarter, posting $8.1 billion in adjusted earnings, or $1.88 per share—up from $7.1 billion in Q2—on record output from Guyana and the Permian Basin. Analysts had forecast $1.82 per share, according to LSEG data.

The quarter’s operational strength came despite weaker crude prices, which averaged $68.17 Brent, down 13% year-on-year. Oil and gas production rose to 4.8 million boe/d from 4.6 million in Q2, with record-setting output in both key regions helping offset price softness. Free cash flow, however, fell to $6.3 billion from $11.3 billion a year ago as Exxon spent more on acquiring Permian acreage.

Exxon boosted its quarterly dividend 4% to $1.03 per share and confirmed it remains on track to complete $20 billion in share buybacks this year, after returning $9.3 billion to shareholders last quarter. The company recorded $510 million in restructuring costs but said full-year capital spending will come in slightly below the $27–29 billion guidance range.

Upstream profits reached $5.7 billion, up from $5.4 billion in Q2. Refining contributed $1.8 billion. CEO Darren Woods told investors that the company continues to focus on long-term investments despite near-term market weakness. “The industry has to bring on more barrels just to stand still,” he said, underscoring Exxon’s intent to keep expanding production capacity in anticipation of stronger future demand.

Woods also revealed that Exxon is “in the process” of lifting force majeure on its $30 billion Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique as security conditions improve. The move follows TotalEnergies’ decision to restart its neighboring project, potentially paving the way for Mozambique to become a top-10 global gas producer by 2040.

The third-quarter performance highlights a company balancing expansion and discipline—funding growth in Guyana, the Permian, and LNG, while keeping capital tight and shareholders paid. After a year of volatile prices, Exxon’s message is clear: the long game still matters.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com