Tighter petroleum product supply resulting from the Strait of Hormuz crisis will keep refining margins significantly higher throughout 2026, Goldman Sachs has forecast, with diesel margins especially elevated, Reuters reported.
The war in the Middle East has pushed refiners’ margins two to three times higher than the average for the period from 2013 to 2019, the investment bank’s commodity analysts said in a note this week. Diesel margins specifically are seen at between $19 and $26 per barrel higher than they were before March.
“We expect gasoline and especially diesel stocks to decline further in the initial Hormuz reopening stage as demand likely recovers more quickly than refined product supply,” the analysts said. The forecast is prompted by refinery outages in both the Middle East and Russia—two major fuel exporters. According to the bank, global exports of refined petroleum products are down by 4 million barrels daily from pre-war levels, with lower Asian refinery output also contributing to war-related refinery damage. In the Middle East alone, the drop in output was estimated at 2.5 million barrels daily.
Gulf states suffered refinery outages amid the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran, while Russian refineries have become the go-to targets for Ukrainian drone attacks. Both conflicts have hurt production, with Reuters recently estimating Russian diesel output fell by 10% last month after another 10% drop in April as a result of the attacks, tightening an already tight market further. The country earlier this week instituted a ban on jet fuel exports until November.
In this context, Goldman sees margins for diesel in Europe at $37 per barrel in the fourth quarter of the year, with the margin for U.S. refiners even higher, at $50 per barrel. Gasoline margins, according to the bank’s analysts, will average $14 per barrel in Europe and $22 per barrel in the United States.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
More Top Reads From Oilprice.com
- Pakistan Inflation Accelerates to 11.7% on Oil and Gas Import Shock
- Rystad: U.S.-Iran Re-Escalation Could Drive Oil To $180 By August
- BP Starts Production at Trillion-Cubic-Foot Gas Prize In Azerbaijan
