Soaring energy costs sent India’s wholesale inflation surging in April to the highest level in three and a half years and well above analyst estimates, as the worst oil supply shock in history is taking its toll on economies.
India, the world’s third-largest crude importer, saw its wholesale inflation jumping to 8.3% in April from a year earlier, significantly accelerating from 3.88% annual inflation in March, government data showed on Thursday.
The wholesale inflation reading for April was also much higher than the 4.4% projected in a Reuters poll.
The last time wholesale inflation in India soared at a faster pace was the 8.7% reading in October 2022, during the previous energy crisis after the Russian invasion of Ukraine earlier that year.
“Positive rate of inflation in April, 2026 is primarily due to increase in prices of mineral oils, crude petroleum & natural gas, basic metals, other manufacturing and non-food articles etc.,” India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry said in the statement accompanying the wholesale price numbers.
Wholesale prices of fuel and power surged by 24.71% in April from a year earlier, versus a 1% annual increase in March.
Analysts expect the so-called All India Wholesale Price Index (WPI) to remain high in the coming months as the oil shock is now beginning to be fully priced in in costs and prices.
“Going forward, WPI inflation may remain elevated and volatile due to uncertainty in global crude oil prices, supply-chain disruptions, and currency weakness, especially if geopolitical tensions persist,” Shashwat Singh, fundamental analyst at Bajaj Broking, told Indian outlet The Economic Times.
Data showed earlier this week that China’s consumer inflation accelerated to 1.2% in April, topping analyst estimates, as the Middle East crisis drove a surge in energy prices.
The core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, also accelerated to 1.2% in April from a year earlier, according to the data.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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