The United States said it had struck Venezuela and captured its long-serving President Nicolas Maduro on Saturday, after months of accusing him of drug-running and illegitimacy in power, marking a dramatic escalation in geopolitical tensions.
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“The United States of America has successfully carried out a large-scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicolas Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the country,” President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post.
Washington has not made such a direct intervention in Latin America since the invasion of Panama in 1989 to depose military leader Manuel Noriega, over similar allegations. Trump later said at a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida that the United States will run Venezuela with a group and Secretary of State Marco Rubio would be working on the details. The U.S. president has also threatened to come to the aid of protesters in Iran if security forces fired on them, days into unrest that has left several dead and posed the biggest internal threat to Iranian authorities in years. Meanwhile, the OPEC+ group of crude oil exporters, which includes Venezuela and Russia, meets on Sunday to discuss output.29dk2902l
Below are comments from economists and investors:
JAMIE COX MANAGING PARTNER, HARRIS FINANCIAL GROUP, RICHMOND, VIRGINIA:
“The overall market reaction will be muted—we might get some market moving news tomorrow during the OPEC meeting. (Shares in) Big Oil and the drillers are likely to get a bid, as speculation could build about the potential benefits of rebuilding the oil industry in Venezuela.”
HELIMA CROFT, HEAD OF GLOBAL COMMODITY STRATEGY AND MENA RESEARCH, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, NEW YORK:
“This an enormous undertaking, given the decades-long decline of the oil sector, also the U.S. regime change and nation-building track record is not one of unambiguous success.”
BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIC STRATEGIST, ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT, BROOKFIELD, WISCONSIN:
“This was a matter of when, not if. I’m sure people will debate the political and legal angles, but from an investing perspective, this could unlock massive quantities of oil reserves over time. This could also serve as a warning to the leadership in Iran, and perhaps even in Russia, about the president’s willingness and ability (to) effect change.
“Markets sometimes swing into risk-off mode on expectations of conflict, but once the conflict starts, they rotate quickly to risk-on. Given how quickly this unfolded, the oil markets might be the only markets to respond. There have been plenty of forecasts of a supply glut in the oil market, and this will just add to that.”
MARCHEL ALEXANDROVICH, ECONOMIST, SALTMARSH ECONOMICS, LONDON:
“The events are a reminder that geopolitical tensions continue to dominate the headlines and drive the markets. From the unresolved trade tensions around U.S. tariffs, to Ukraine, Iran, Taiwan and, now, Venezuela, it is clear that the markets are having to cope with significantly more headline risk than they are accustomed to under the previous U.S. administrations.”
TINA FORDHAM, FOUNDER AND GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIST AT FORDHAM GLOBAL FORESIGHT, LONDON:
“The sense of almost a bonanza, to me, is likely to follow, even though the history of post-authoritarian transitions is very bumpy and nonlinear. America’s track record in the Southern is also fairly patchy. I feel that there’s a lot of optimism about a post-Maduro, post-Chavez Venezuela. I think reality is likely to be messier. (For) the Monday open, I think, this is going fuel animal spirits as well as the possibility (of change) in Iran.”
“We’ve periodically seen these protests (in Iran), the regime has been unpopular for a very long time. This time, it’s gaining momentum. These would be two markets, energy-producing, consumer markets, that have been off limits to international investors, potentially opening up.”
(Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe in London and Saeed Azhar in New York; Compiled by Amanda Cooper and Megan Davies; Editing by Rod Nickel)
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