Iran has instructed Yemen’s Houthi movement to stand ready to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the vital gateway to the Red Sea, if the United States follows through on threats to strike Iranian power infrastructure. According to senior Iranian sources, the Islamic Republic’s leadership has discussed the idea with Iran’s Houthi allies, with the rebel forces now awaiting definitive orders to begin targeting maritime traffic.
A source close to the Houthis has confirmed that the group has positioned stockpiles of drones and advanced missiles across Yemen’s strategic highlands overlooking Hodeidah and the Gulf of Aden. Operational decisions regarding the formal closure of the strait will be overseen by representatives of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on the ground in Yemen. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait accommodates roughly 7% of the world’s energy trade. Any disruptions could force international shipping firms to redirect vessels around Africa, inflating transit costs and worsening the global energy crisis, with traffic flows across the Strait of Hormuz already severely compromised.
Saudi Arabia, in particular, faces an acute risk due to its heavy reliance on the Red Sea, having diverted ~70% of its energy exports through the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Saudi Arabia has already pushed crude oil shipments out of Yanbu close to its maximum operational capacity after its four-year truce with the Houthi militia collapsed with the Houthis firing missiles at Saudi Arabia. The Iran-allied group accused the kingdom of executing air strikes against a Houthi-controlled airport. Saudi Arabia has been relying heavily on the 1,200-kilometer East-West Crude Oil Pipeline (Petroline) to feed the Yanbu Commercial Port in a bid to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi crude shipments through Yanbu have averaged above 4 million bpd since June, a massive leap from just 973,000 bpd during the same period in 2025, and surged further to 4.7 million b/d after the truce ended on July 13.
To mitigate the threat of prolonged multi-front shipping disruptions, Saudi Arabia is currently evaluating a massive infrastructure expansion to permanently upgrade the capacity of its western pipeline and terminal networks.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
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