Iran and the US are digging in for a protracted war, with little sign of a near-term ceasefire or return to normal Middle East energy flows even if hostilities remain at a low intensity.
Tehran’s leaders are resolved to keep fighting despite mounting economic costs as they see the conflict as an existential threat, , citing a senior Iranian official. The country has been able to rebuild its missile capabilities and will escalate strikes on US and Gulf assets if Washington intensifies its own attacks, the official said.
Top White House advisers including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have told President Donald Trump that the war could drag on through the remainder of his term, which runs until January 2029, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing US officials.
The conflict has entered a form of stalemate, with critical issues including control of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program still unresolved. While Trump has repeatedly said the purpose of the war is to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon, the International Atomic Energy Association hasn’t been able to verify the state or location of Iran’s inventory of near-bomb-grade uranium since June 2025, when Israel and the US attacked the country’s sprawling nuclear facilities.
The IAEA said Thursday it’s observed construction activity at Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain, a heavily-fortified site suspected of housing nuclear-related activities. Trump has referenced the site twice in recent days, warning that the US could target it with fresh strikes.
The preparations for an extended confrontation contradict Trump’s latest comments that the war will end “immediately” after the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Those are being overshadowed by the conflict and consequent rise in energy prices. Brent crude oil reaching on Thursday.
The US is trying to force Iran back to the negotiating table by blockading its ports and threatening countries that don’t do more to cut economic ties with the Islamic Republic.
Iran “can’t hold out any longer” and is “desperate to try and affect the election,” Trump told reporters.
Many diplomats in the region don’t share Trump’s optimism. Oman, with which Iran is negotiating a new route through the Strait of Hormuz, sees no sign that the US’s economic campaign is making Iran more willing to do a deal, according to a diplomat familiar with the matter.
Several European states have the same view as Oman, the diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Oman’s foreign ministry didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Brent has risen more than 9% this week due to an uptick in shipping attacks around the Strait of Hormuz, the critical waterway that’s become the focal point of the conflict. About a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the strait before the war, but volumes have plunged as a result of the hostilities.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps says its forces will hit 20 targets for every two struck by the US, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Wednesday.
One US warship had to evade an Iranian assault this week, drawing retaliatory American strikes on Iranian oil tankers. Tehran responded with attacks on a US base in Jordan and several commercial vessels.
The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen are waging in another theatre of the war, mostly targeting Saudi Arabian infrastructure in the south of the kingdom. The Houthis have largely defeated the Yemeni internationally-recognized government’s forces in Mokha, on the Red Sea, the New York Times reported.
Iran is signaling that the US blockade on its Persian Gulf ports and increased sanctions pressure won’t constrain its ability to continue the fight, even with inflation rising to around 90% and the national currency slumping.
The country’s defense industry “continues on its path more steadfast, alive, intelligent, and advanced than ever before,” the Defense Ministry said in a statement on Thursday. “Soon, you will see the tip of this iceberg.”
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