Keeping global warming below 1.5°C ‘is no longer plausible’

  • Gas
  • November 13, 2025

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to rise 1.1% in 2025 to 38.1 billion tonnes of CO2, according to the 2025 Global Carbon Budget released at COP30.

Decarbonisation of energy systems is progressing in many countries but this is not enough to offset the growth in global energy demand, it found.

“With carbon dioxide emissions still increasing, keeping global warming below 1.5°C is no longer plausible,” said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, from the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, who led the study.

“The remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C, 170 billion tonnes of CO2, will be gone before 2030 at current emission rate. We estimate that climate change is now reducing the combined land and ocean sinks – a clear signal from planet Earth that we need to dramatically reduce emissions.”

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