In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone late Monday by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be down by 2.8 million barrels for the week ending March 21.
“This follows a 1.7 million barrel build for the week ending March 14, with the crude balance realizing moderately looser than our expectations amidst strong implied supply,” the strategists noted in the report.
“For this week’s crude balance, from refineries, we model crude runs down slightly (-0.1 million barrels per day) following a soft print last week,” they added.
“Among net imports, we model a moderate increase, with exports modestly lower (-0.2 million barrels per day) and imports modestly higher (+0.2 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they continued.
The strategists stated in the report that timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a correction (-1.1 million barrels per day) this week,” the strategists went on to state.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate another small increase in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks (+0.2 million barrels) this week,” they said.
“Among products, we look for draws in gasoline (-2.7 million barrels) and distillate (-4.3 million barrels), with a build in jet (+0.4 million barrels). We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.6 million barrels per day for the week ending March 21,” the strategists continued.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on March 19 and included data for the week ending March 14, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, increased by 1.7 million barrels from the week ending March 7 to the week ending March 14.
This EIA report revealed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 437.0 million barrels on March 14, 435.2 million barrels on March 7, and 445.0 million barrels on March 15, 2024. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 395.9 million barrels on March 14, 395.6 million barrels on March 7, and 362.3 million barrels on March 15, 2024, the report showed. The EIA report highlighted that data may not add up to totals due to independent rounding.
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.596 billion barrels on March 14, the report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were up 1.9 million barrels week on week and up 22.5 million barrels year on year, the report showed.
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on March 19, Quasar Elizundia, Expert Research Strategist at Pepperstone, said, “according to the latest weekly report from the Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.7 million barrels, a figure that surprised the market, generating downward pressure”.
“This increase reflects a temporary weakening in domestic demand, heightening concerns among investors about a potential economic slowdown,” Elizundia added.
“However, a significant decline in refined product stocks could provide short-term support for prices. Gasoline inventories fell by 0.5 million barrels, while distillates dropped by 2.8 million. This contraction indicates a tight energy market in key segments, which could limit further price declines,” Elizundia went on to state in the analysis.
“The sustained reduction in crude imports also emerges as a relevant factor. Imports stood at 5.4 million barrels per day, marking an 11 percent year over year decline over the past four weeks. This drop reflects a strategic adjustment by U.S. importers, possibly anticipating fluctuations in global supply,” Elizundia continued.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone on March 17 by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be down by 1.2 million barrels for the week ending March 14.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on March 26. It will include data for the week ending March 21.
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