Moscow’s New Energy Plan: Oil Output To Remain Flat Until 2050

Based on Moscow’s new energy plan, Russian crude oil production and exports are set to remain flat until 2050, and output is projected to settle at around 540 million metric tons by the end of this decade, crimped by U.S. and European Union sanctions, Bloomberg reported on Monday.

In 2023, Russia produced 531 million metric tons. In terms of exports, Russia’s new energy plan projects flat exports through 2050 of around 235 million tons annually.

While oil production is set to see zero growth from now until the middle of the century, Russian natural gas production is projected to increase to 853 billion cubic meters by the end of this decade, and up to over one trillion cubic meters by 2050.

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According to Reuters, despite setbacks in pipeline gas exports to Europe due to sanctions, Moscow plans to increase its gas exports—including both liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline supplies—from 146 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2023 to 293 bcm in 2030, potentially reaching 438 bcm by 2050.

LNG exports are expected to surge from 45 bcm in 2023 to 142 bcm in 2030 and further to 241 bcm by 2050, although current U.S. sanctions have hindered shipments from the new Arctic LNG-2 project.

The new Russian energy plan appears to contradict statements coming out of Moscow as early as September 2024, when the country’s deputy energy minister, Pavel Sorokin, said Russia was anticipating significant growth in global oil demand through 2050 and was prepared to meet that rising demand. At the time, Sorokin also stressed that Russia will not saturate the market unless necessary. The Energy Ministry forecasts global oil demand to grow by at least 5-7 million barrels per day, a 4.5%-5.5% increase through 2030, with continued growth of at least 5% by 2050.

Things have changed since then, exponentially, with OPEC on Monday revising its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 downward over tariff warfare and related economic growth forecasts. OPEC now anticipates a demand increase of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2025, down 150,000 bpd from its previous projection. Similarly, the 2026 forecast has been adjusted downward to 1.28 million bpd.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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