Nigeria Misses 2025 Oil Production Target by 500,000 Bpd

Nigeria booked average daily crude oil production of around 1.5 million barrels for 2025, which was half a million barrels daily lower than the government’s target for the sector, Vanguard reported today.

Official data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission showed there were 40 active drilling rigs in the country at the end of the year, while OPEC reported the number of active drilling rigs in Nigeria at 18 for November, the report noted.

In that month, oil production jumped to around 1.6 million barrels daily, the Nigerian state oil company, NNPC, said earlier this month. NNPC is set to increase oil production to 2 million bpd over the next two years, its executive vice president for upstream, Udy Ntia, said in November 2025. By 2030, NNPC will be pumping 3 million barrels daily, according to the official.

Nigeria has been pumping more crude and drilling more new wells than it has in years, thanks to reforms under President Bola Tinubu that are finally leading to more cash flowing into the upstream industry. Daily output had climbed to between 1.7 million and 1.83 million barrels, while active rigs surged from 31 in January to 50 by July 2025.

To maintain momentum in the revival of its oil industry, Nigeria, at the end of 2025, held a licensing round for 50 oil and gas blocks. The round could result in investments of $10 billion over the next ten years and add some 400,000 barrels daily to the country’s oil production capacity, the government said at the time.

Support for the momentum comes from Big Oil, which, after years of shrinking its activities in Nigeria, now has plans to expand there. Shell, for instance, is on track to start production from the Bonga North deepwater field next year, while TotalEnergies is planning to launch gas production at the Ubeta field in 2027 as well.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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