Summary
- US, Iran prepare for talks on Friday
- About a fifth of global oil consumption passes through Strait of Hormuz
- Volatility leads to record WTI Midland contracts in January
- Brent crude still close to five-month high
(Reuters) – Oil prices fell more than 2% on Thursday but held close to multi-month highs after the U.S. and Iran agreed to hold talks in Oman on Friday.
Brent crude futures were down $1.54, or 2.2%, at $67.92 per barrel at 1306 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down $1.52, or 2.3%, at $63.62.
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Oil prices are strongly influenced by tensions in the Middle East, with markets closely watching the talks in Oman, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
The discussions come as the U.S. builds up forces in the Middle East, and regional players seek to avoid a military confrontation that many fear could escalate into a wider war.
About a fifth of the world’s total oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran. Other OPEC members, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq, export most of their crude via the strait, as does Iran.
PVM Oil Associates analyst John Evans said that ahead of Friday’s meeting the market would likely drift, with hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough.
“However, there will be no comfort as such in prices, for one untoward remark or a breakdown in talks and the Brent price will soon be banging on the door of $70 a barrel and looking at year-to-date highs,” he said.
Volatility has led investors to rush to lock in oil prices this year, trading a record number of WTI Midland at Houston contracts in January, amid concerns around Middle Eastern supply risks and more Venezuelan barrels heading to the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Strength in the U.S. dollar and volatility in precious metals also weighed on commodities and risk sentiment more broadly on Thursday, analysts said.
On the supply side, discounts on Russian oil exports to China widened to new records this week to attract demand from the world’s top crude importer and offset the likely loss of Indian sales, traders said.
This comes after a trade deal announced between the U.S. and India earlier in the week where the latter agreed to halting purchases of Russian crude.
Argentina’s energy trade surplus could be higher in 2026 from records hit last year due to crude output from the Vaca Muerta shale formation, in the range of $8.5 billion to $10 billion, three analysts told Reuters.
Reporting by Seher Dareen in London, Katya Golubkova in Tokyo and Siyi Liu in Singapore. Editing by Jamie Freed, Jan Harvey and Mark Potter
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