In a market quick take posted on its website on Monday, Saxo Bank highlighted that oil prices jumped “after the battle for control over the Strait of Hormuz escalated over the weekend”.
“Fresh strikes by U.S. and Iran renewed concerns about the safe passage of oil and other key commodities through the narrow waterway,” Saxo noted in the quick take.
“The hostilities also risk derailing efforts to rebuild inventories, according to the IEA [International Energy Agency], while further reducing the prospects for a diplomatic resolution,” it added.
Saxo outlined in the quick take that, despite the escalation, “the relatively modest premium between front-month and deferred futures suggests the physical crude market remains orderly for now”.
It warned that the main focus continues to be refined products, “where already tight market conditions – recently exacerbated by Russia’s diesel export ban – are adding to inflationary pressures”.
In its quick take, the bank said the U.S. and Iran exchanged fresh missile strikes as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz intensified.
“Iran claimed it had closed the strait, a move rejected by the U.S., and said it would not resume negotiations until Washington honors previous commitments on transit rights and oil exports,” Saxo highlighted.
“Meanwhile, the U.S. launched new strikes targeting Iranian air defense systems, coastal radar installations, and missile and drone capabilities,” it added.
“In retaliation, Iran carried out drone and missile attacks against U.S. allies across the Middle East, including Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar,” it continued.
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone today, Waleed Said, Technical analyst at GivTrade, said oil was surging as traders price in the risk of disruption across the Strait of Hormuz and other critical supply routes.
“Brent and WTI could climb further if tensions threaten tankers, ports or production, but credible negotiations and stable shipping flows would quickly remove part of the risk premium,” Said noted.
“The key question is whether supply recovery can keep pace with the growing threat of renewed disruption,” Said warned.
Monte Safieddine, Head of Market Research at Capital.com, outlined in another market analysis sent to Rigzone today that oil prices were gapping higher “as fresh strikes were exchanged over the weekend and Iran saying the strait is closed ‘until further notice’, though that claim was rejected by U.S. Central Command”.
Rigzone has contacted the White House and Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment on the Saxo Bank quick take and Said and Safieddine’s statements. At the time of writing, neither has responded to Rigzone.
In a statement posted on its X page on Monday, U.S. Central Command said it “completed a new wave of offensive strikes against Iran, July 12, hitting dozens of targets at multiple locations with precision munitions to degrade Iran’s ability to continue attacking international shipping flowing through the Strait of Hormuz”.
“CENTCOM forces struck Iranian military air-defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats using U.S. fighter aircraft, naval vessels, one-way attack aerial drones, and one-way attack sea drones for the first time,” it added.
“The Strait of Hormuz is a vital maritime corridor for global trade. Iran does not control it. U.S. forces are postured and prepared to ensure that freedom of navigation remains available to commercial shipping despite Iran’s continued unwarranted aggression, harassment, threats, and arbitrary declarations,” it went on to state.
In a statement posted on his X page on July 9, which was translated from Persian, the Speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said, “America still hasn’t learned that bullying and breaking promises are no longer cost-free”.
“Let me put it plainly: if you strike, you’ll get hit. Don’t flail around pointlessly, or you’ll sink even deeper: the Strait of Hormuz will only open with ‘Iranian arrangements’, not American threats,” he added.
Rigzone has contacted the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment on Centcom’s X post, and the White House for comment on Ghalibaf’s X post. At the time of writing, neither has responded to Rigzone.
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